Sagy’s SOAP (Sublime Observations, Analysis & Projections) Box

2018 and 2022 World Cup hosting predictions

2010-11-30T21:44:00.001-06:00

2018 World Cup vote

A three way race, with Spain/Portugal the likely winner since England and Russia keep fighting. The Netherlands/Belgium will be eliminated in the first round. With FIFA not liking the English newspapers for their expose my guess is that England will be out in the second round. With the England votes favoring Iberians, Russia will just miss out. If England can survive the first two rounds (they are likely to get the Belgium vote), they have a good change against Russia and will probably lose to the Iberians. If England loses the Asian support, I can see the Iberian pulling a "Rio" and sending some support toward the Low Countries in order to eliminate England in Round 1.

My guess for Initial support

Spain/Portugal	England	Russia	Netherlands/Belgium
Spain	England	Russia	Belgium
Argentina	USA	Cameron	France
Brazil	T&T	Ivory Coast
Paraguay	Cyprus	Turkey
Qatar	Japan	Germany
Egypt	Thailand	Sepp Blatter
Guatemala	South Korea

My guess: Spain/Portugal

2018 World Cup vote

If I'm correct and the Iberians wins 2018, it means that Qatar will win 2022. Otherwise it is the US should win. Regardless, Japan and South Korea will be eliminated early. Australia is likely to be out in the third and that will put Qatar vs. US in the final round. Qatar has the votes of the three South American (if Spain/Portugal win 2018 they are basically committed) the same is true for Qatar, Egypt and Spain. They are also likely to get South Korea, Japan and Thailand in the final rounds as well as Cameroon and Ivory Coast which brings them to 11 out of the 22 votes. If Guatemala defects it is all over for the US. It is unlikely that Russia will support Qatar (due to their alliance with the Iberians) and the US can probably count on T&T, England, Belgium, Germany and maybe France add one for the US and we have a total of 6 or 7. The US needs Turkey and Cyprus as well as Sepp Blatter and Guatemala to just be tied at 11.

My guess: Qatar

The US best chance is for Russia to win 2018 which will break the Latin-Arab alliance and might get the 3 South American votes as well as keeping Guatemala at home. I don't see Qatar with less than 6 votes which should guarantee them a place in the final two.

Semi-Finals Summary

2010-07-07T23:15:00.001-05:00

Confederation status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%	Pwr
CSF	5	5	4	23	12	6	5	42	31	19	12	65%	61%	77%
UEFA	13	6	3	33	14	10	9	52	43	30	13	58%	53%	45%
CONF	3	2		11	2	4	5	10	9	13	-4	36%	30%	33%
AFC	4	2		14	4	3	7	15	14	28	-14	39%	36%	31%
CAF	6	1	1	20	4	6	10	18	17	24	-7	35%	30%	25%
OFC	1			3	0	3	0	3	2	2	0	50%	33%	21%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

UEFA domination post group stage continues. In Inter-Confederation games post group play they are now 4:0:0 and have two teams in the Final. Before the knock-out games they were a very pedestrian 10:10:9 and looking ready to lose another WC spot. Now UEFA is looking for the first out of confederation WC championship, on the other hand, all the UEFA championships have come in the "European" time zones.

On the other hand CSF was at one point (post round of 16) 12:5:1 in Inter-Confederation play and have since gone 0:1:4. Still, getting 4 out of 5 team to the quarter-finals is a very impressive performance that shouldn't be over looked by FIFA

Observations

For this World Cup, FIFA changed the rules about Yellow Cards accumulations. Up to this WC, the YC accumulation was reset after the group stage. This means that if A player got a single YC in the first 3 games and another in the following set of 3 games he would not be suspended. A suspension will only occurred if a player got two YC in a single set of 3 games. This time the reset occurs after 5 games, so we have a set of 5 games followed by a single game. The purpose? To ensure that players will not miss the finals due to two yellows.

Spain was better than Germany today. I doubt that Muller would have made a difference, but we will never know. Muller got one YC in the group Stage and another (probably undeserving) in the game against Argentina. As a result of the rule change he had to seat the game – this is plain wrong. On the other hand a player committing a tactical foul in the 71' of a 0:0 game (which might very well have saved the game for his team) will get to play in the finals even if he got a YC for a foul in the 92' min to preserve a 1:0 win in the round of 16. Made up scenario? No, this is what happen to Ballack in the 2002 WC and he did miss the finals.

Germany would have loved for the rules in 2002 and 2010 to have been reversed. I think that the old rule is correct and the new one just PC to address people that think that the finals is the only thing that matters and getting to the finals happen by magic.

Spain made it to the finals after scoring only 7 goals in 6 games an average of 1.167 goals per game. The only finalists with a worse goal/game average were West Germany 1996 (6 goals in 6 games) and 1990 Argentina (5 goals in 6 games). The winner with the lowest goals/game pre finals is 1996 England with 7 goals in 5 games. They have only given up two goals, both on tough breaks.

Unless something drastic happens in the finals, I would say that Casillas and the Spain defense should be in the team of the tournament. Somehow we need to put Lahm in there but I have no idea who to take out – Puyol as good as he has been was the weakest of the four, but after today's goal, there is no way to keep him out. Many will put Edurado of Portugal or Kawashima of Japan as the GK of the tournament, but in my book Casillas has it, without him Spain might not beat Portugal, is probably out in the Quarters against Paraguay and likely doesn't pass Germany in the Semis.

The Netherland with 12 goals in six games are the second most productive offence this world cup. They also are 6:0:0, Only Brazil 2002 (7:0:0) and 1970 (6:0:0) won the world cup with a perfect record post world war II. Italy in 1990 with a 6:1:0 record, didn't even reach the finals (eliminated by Argentina in the Semis in PSO). That same Argentina team finished in second place with a 2:3:2 record – they are also the only team to advance twice in the same WC after PSO.

Trivia

Since the expansion to 24 teams, this is the first world cup in which all 4 Semi-Finalists have won their group. The only other times this happened was in 1966 and 1958.

Spain (in its 56^th WC game) will face Netherlands (in its 43th WC game) for the first time in the WC.

Good news for Spain, a team from Group E almost always makes it to the Semis, but only won the WC once. 1986 – West Germany, 1994 – Italy, 1998 – Netherlands, 2002 – Germany, 2006 – Italy, 2010 – Netherlands (prior to 1982 there was no group E).

The two occasions that a team from group E didn't make it to the Semis (1982 and 1990), Spain was the seeded team in group E.

With the reversal of the Melo own goal "ruling" (awarded to Sneijder, which I think is a good call), Brazil has no played in 97 WC games without giving up an own goal (if my scan of the records is correct).

Germany has passed Brazil in the number of games played (98 to 97) with a third place game left, but they still trail in number of goals scored (210:203). It is very unlikely that they'll be able to surpass Brazil on this count this year.

Klose scored 5 goals in 2002, 5 in 2006 and has 4 with a game to go in 2010. If he scored one more goal in the 3^rd place game he will tie Ronaldo as the all time top scorer in world cup history.

The top scorer in each world cup has most often come from the 3^rd place match up:

2006 – Klose, GER

1998 – Sukar, CRO

1994 – Stoitchov, BUL (Shared)

1990 – Schillaci, ITA

1974 – Lato, POL

1970 – Muller, Ger

1966 – Eusebio, POR

1962 – Sanchez, CHI; Jerkovic, YUG (Shared)

1958 – Fontaine, FRA

1938 – Leonidaz, BRA

Sometimes, from the wining team:

2002 – Ronaldo, BRA

1982 – Rossi, ITA

1978 – Kempes, ARG

1962 – Garrincha, BRA; Vava BRA (Shared)

And in earlier days, the second place team:

1954 – Kocsis, HUN

1950 – Ademir, BRA

1934 – Nejedly, CZE

1930 – Stabile, ARG

The one exception is 1986 when Lineker, ENG was the top scorer.

This time with a game to go the leading scorers (Villa, ESP; Sneijder, NED; both with 5) are in the final. However, the 3^rd place game should have Mueller, Forlan, and Klose with 4 goals each and Suarez with 3. Don't rule out the possibility that one of them will leap to the top.

The record for the most players tied for top scorer is 6 in 1962 when all of them scored only 4 goals.

From 1978 to 1998 the top scorer has 6 goals.

Quarter-Finals Summary

2010-07-06T07:01:00.001-05:00

Confederation status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%	Pwr
CSF	5	5	4	22	12	6	4	42	29	16	13	68%	64%	78%
UEFA	13	6	3	32	13	10	9	49	40	28	12	56%	51%	44%
CONF	3	2		11	2	4	5	10	9	13	-4	36%	30%	33%
AFC	4	2		14	4	3	7	15	14	28	-14	39%	36%	31%
CAF	6	1	1	20	4	6	10	18	17	24	-7	35%	30%	25%
OFC	1			3	0	3	0	3	2	2	0	50%	33%	21%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

What a difference a day makes actually 30 little hours. CSF was seating pretty with 4 teams in the quarters and reasonable match-ups for all four (maybe not Paraguay). Thirty hours later, Brazil lost a close one to the Netherlands, Uruguay miraculously managed to advance past Ghana and crash all African dreams what followed was most unexpected, we all knew that Germany was no pushover, but I don't think that even the biggest German fan expected or even dreamed of a 4:0 trashing of Argentina. As many expected, Maradona managed to prevent Argentina from winning the WC. The way Germany played against the, even a good Argentina team might have had problems; the point is that Maradona made it very easy for Germany.

UEFA had made great steps forward, but since my formula doesn't give extra credit for Quarter, Semi and Final wins (just the regular Win% and Pts%, CSF is still comfortably ahead. Maybe the formula needs to be adjusted. CONCACAF managed to edge AFC for third place mainly due to the fact that it had one less team in the WC – sometimes, less is more.

There is no other way to say it – CAF is overrated. Even with six teams in the WC, they only managed to advance one team to the second round, while three teams finished winless and last in the group. CAF has never been able to advance more than a single team. While consistency should count for something (CAF has advanced a single team since 1986), the poor success rate over this time – only 25% advancing and over 46% finishing last and winless should give FIFA a hint.

The argument of "give them a chance and they'll prove themselves" fails; since 1998 when CAF allocation was increased to 5 teams (4 WCs), CAF teams have advanced 19% of the time and finished last and winless 43% of the time (9 out of 21). During this time, no other Confederation had more teams finishing last and winless (AFC also had 9). With the exception of OFC (only two teams during these 4 WCs) no other confederation has had less teams advancing from the group stage (AFC also had 4).

Yes, the fans of the CAF teams are, for the most part, entertaining and they do add color to the event. However, I'm sure that the same is true for many Pacific Island nations, should we increase OFC allocation to 2 teams? The quality of the fans shouldn't determine WC spot allocation Team quality and the good of the game should.

Observations

UEFA only qualified 6 teams to the second round, probably its worse performance ever; all six had to play each other in the round of 16. From that point on, UEFA teams have not lost an Inter-Confederation game. Before the Quarter-Finals CSF teams had a single Inter-Confederation loss compared with 12 wins; in the Quarter-Finals there 0:1:3 and by all rights should have lost all four games.

The last time a CSF team advanced farther than both Brazil and Argentina was 1954. Some things to consider about 1954:

All CSF teams advanced from the group stage.
The highest finishing CSF team was Uruguay.
Uruguay reached the Semi-finals.
Brazil was eliminated in the Quarter-Finals.
France failed to make it out of the group stage
Italy failed to advance out of the group stage after a shock defeat to a UEFA team in a 5 goals game.
England was eliminated in the first knock-out game while giving up 4 goals.
A team from Korea lost a game 7:0
The Semis had 3 UEFA teams
Three of the Semi-Finalist failed to make the top 8 in the previous WC.
Uruguay faced the team that beat Brazil in the Semis
Germany (OK, West Germany) was in the other Semi-Final
Germany lost a game in the group Stage to a UEFA team.
In their first 5 matches, Germany scored 4 or more goals in 3 matches.

All of the above are true about 2010 – in 1954, Germany won the world cup and Uruguay finished 4^th.

South Africa Review

The people were great hosts everything and every time. I also enjoyed the fact that whenever I was carrying or wearing my Israeli Flag people of all nationalities wanted to take pictures of it (either with me or themselves holding it). Some of the street vendors even offered to buy it from me or trade for another flag. Aside from the great encounter with the people of the Bafokeng nation, we also had a wonderful chance meeting at a road side stand near Pilanesberg. Adi noticed a man selling corn by the side of the road so we stopped and bought some corn roasted over wood. It turns out the man was from Mozambique and it moved to South Africa several years ago to avoid the civil war.

Our hosts in Jo'burg were great and very helpful and the guest house Adi found for us was outstanding. We managed to make more than a few friends at a local coffee shop where we had coffee and sometime breakfast most morning. I think that the security concerns were overblown. Just like any big city around the world, there are places you should go and places you shouldn't. If one uses common sense and learn the routes to take, there should be no more problems than any other major metropolitan area. I feel sorry for the people that missed the World Cup due to fears about security.

In all the stadiums we have been to, there wasn't a scoreboard or clock – you don't realize how much you miss it until it is not there. It also looks like FIFA gave the organizing committee a break on the facilities. Ellis Park is a very nice stadium and as far as I can tell, well located, however inside the stadium, the amenities are not what you would expect from a world class stadium. In Loftus, getting in and out of the lower level via a narrow tunnel is borderline dangerous. Royal Bafokeng stadium is one of the hardest Stadiums to get to. It has less than 45 thousand seats a good number of the fans where there hours before the US – Ghana started and yet we were stuck in a traffic jam 77km from Rustenburg almost 3 hours before the game started – None of these are world cup level.

Without a doubt the low point of the world cup was the vuvuZevel (I should trademark the name). Before anyone says anything; yes, I'm a hypocrite – there are four vuvuzelas in my suitcase, in my defense, I never used one in a stadium or while fans were celebrating. Considering the Ghana – Uruguay game instead of being able to hear the fans supporting Ghana for the last two minutes of the game we would have been able to enjoy this for 120 minutes. Could this have had an impact on such close game? We will never know, what we do know is that Ghana totally dominated the game while the fans were supporting them in the last few minutes. Bottom line, vuvuzelas are just like farts – when you are the source it doesn't seem bad at all.

On my last day in South Africa and wend to the Sterkfontein Caves which are part of the Cradle of Humankind site. I wish I had gone there sooner and had more time to stay. I guess this is one more reason to visit South Africa again.

Trivia

Spain (54 games so far) and Netherlands (41 games so far) never faced each other in the world cup.

The two PKs missed (actually saved) in the Spain Paraguay Quarter-Finals match was only the second time in which two PKs were missed in the single game (not including PSO). The First was Argentina – Mexico in 1930 (the only WC game with 3 PKs).

Germany is about to overtake Brazil as the team with the most games played (so far both played in 97 matches) and is likely to be the first team to reach the Century mark. Brazil however, still holds a commanding lead in wins (67 vs. 59) and has fewer losses (15 vs. 19).

Mid Quarter-Finals update

2010-07-03T10:05:00.001-05:00

The Games

The Netherlands took revenge on Brazil for 1994 (3:2 loss in the Quarter-Finals) and 1998 (PSO elimination in the Semi-Finals) by coming back from behind to win 2:1. This makes Brazil the first CSF team to be eliminated this world cup by a non-CSF team. I think that the last time this happened was 1966.

Ghana played better than Uruguay from the 20^th minute on but except for a great long distance shot at the end of the half were unable to score. Ghana come closer than any other CAF nation to reach the semis (Cameron, 1990, lost to England 3:2 in extra time; Senegal 2002, lost to Turkey 1:0 on a Golden Goal in extra time).

On the other side, this is Uruguay first trip to the Semis since 1970. This is a team which made the Semis in 4 of its first 6 WC appearances and failed to ream the Quarters since (four appearances). From a Uruguayan point of view, this was a one man show (Forlan) until literally the last minute when in a strange twist of fate Suarez turned from a villain to a hero when Gyan missed a penalty kick in the last second of the game to become the goat of the game.

The interview

After the game we stayed to watch the Uruguayan celebrate, the joy and happiness of the fans was a site to see. The majority of the fans at the stadium supported Ghana, from signs like "The United States of Africa vs. Uruguay" to "BaGhana BaGhana" replacing the South African "Bafana Bafana". Nadav who replaced Lior in our team of four supported Uruguay and was draped in a Uruguayan flag and I had the Israeli Blue and White flag.

As we were walking outside the stadium back to the car we were approached by a man that asked us if we are willing to be interviewed by the BBC radio worldwide service as Uruguayan fans – Nadav and I did oblige. We had to wait for a while an upset Ghanaian fan was being interviewed. The interviewer than turned to us, asked for our names and proceeded to ask us about Suarez being a villain or a hero. We both expressed the view that before the miss he was a villain. The fact that he saved a sure goal and the PK was missed giving Uruguay a chance to advance made him a Hero. We were then asked if it is right for a cheat to be a hero, and my answer was that this is life. Overall, the interview lasted about 2-3 minutes – my first time on worldwide radio.

Observations

FIFA is now talking about giving Suarez a two games suspension for his hand ball/save – this is wrong!!! I don't think that there has ever been a case of DOGSO-H (Deny an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity by Handling the ball) in which a player was suspended for more than 1 game. Why even talk about a longer suspension? Because Gyan missed the subsequent PK and Ghana failed to advance? The punishment for DOGSO is already very severe: a send-off, followed by a PK following by a mandatory one game suspension.

Let's review, this WC, Khune (ZAR) and Kewell (AUS) got a red card for DOGSO, neither was suspended for more than a game. Are the rules at the WC Quarter-Finals different than earlier stages? Is there anything in the rule book which says that the punishment if the attacking team misses the PK should be more severe than otherwise? Call it cheating, call it taking one for the team or call it exploitation of the rules; it makes little difference – as far as I can recall no other player in this WC was suspended for more than a game and there is no footballing reason for this to be any different.

Two quarter-finals games are done and I'm down to two teams; Israel – didn't quality, Brazil – out in the Quarters, USA out in the Round of 16, so now I'm down to the 4^th (Netherlands) and 5^th (Spain) teams.

Arjen Robben (yes, Adam he is only 26 years old, and thanks for saying that I look younger than him) showed us how a single player can disrupt and frustrate a good defensive team by doing all the little things right. Most people will have Sneijder as the man of the match; after all he did take the shoot that turned into an own goal and he did score the winner.

As far as I'm concerned there is no doubt that Robben was the key to the game. He forced the Brazilian defense to foul him all game long (even when Brazil had control of the game). His efforts led to a yellow card on Bastos the Brazilian defender and later to his substitution which caused poor marking on the Robben corner kick which led to the winning goal. Robben was also the player who was fouled in the attacked third just before the Sneijder cross and the own goal. I don't expect most fans to notice this type of contributions, but I do which that commentators and post-game reports would highlight this type of play.

Trivia

Last time Brazil lost a WC game in the Southern hemisphere was 1950 to Uruguay in a game in which they also led 1:0 and lost 1:2.

Brazil has played in 97 WC games, Melo's own goal today was the first they have conceded.

All of Forlan 4 world cup goals were scored against African teams (first was against Senegal in 2002).

In the last 7 World Cup Penalty Shoot-Out the team to take the first penalty won the PSO. The last team to kick second and win was Spain against Ireland on June 16^th 2002 in a PSO which saw 4 PKs missed in a row and 5 of 6 – Ireland miss the second kick and both missed the 3^rd and 4^th kicks.

So far in WC history there have been 22 PSO (first in 1982); 144 out of 203 were converted for a success rate of 70.9%. Twice only 7 kicks were needed (1986: Germany 4 – Mexico 1; 2006: Ukraine 3 – Switzerland 0) and twice 12 kicks were needed (1982: Germany 5 – France 4; 1994: Sweden 5 – Romania 4)

Round of 16 Summary

2010-07-02T04:27:00.001-05:00

Confederation Status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%	Pwr
CSF	5	5	4	18	12	5	1	41	27	8	19	81%	76%	84%
UEFA	13	6	3	29	10	10	9	40	33	27	6	52%	46%	42%
CONF	3	2		11	2	4	5	10	9	13	-4	36%	30%	33%
AFC	4	2		14	4	3	7	15	14	28	-14	39%	36%	31%
CAF	6	1	1	19	4	5	10	17	16	23	-7	34%	30%	24%
OFC	1			3	0	3	0	3	2	2	0	50%	33%	21%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

I added a Power ranking (Pwr) which is the average of Winning%, Points%, Teams in second%, Teams in Quarter-Finals%. So UEFA gets (52%+46%+6/13+3/16)/4 = (52%+46%+46%+23%)/4 = 42%.

For the first time ever, 4 CSF teams have made it to the Quarter-Final round. This is even more surprising since the last time CSF had three teams in the "elite eight" was 1978 in Argentina when Peru joined Brazil and Argentina. In the 32 years since, only Brazil and Argentina managed to reach this level from CSF. On the other side of the coin, this is the first time that only three UEFA teams made it this far, the previous low was 4 in 2002 (CSF, AFC, CONF and CAF representatives made up the other four). In 1994, UEFA had 7 teams in the Quarter-Finals while in 1998 and 2006 they had 6, so this is a big drop.

The CSF performance is incredible, the only one team eliminated (Chile) and that was a result of a loss to another CSF team (Brazil). So far we had 9 intra-confederation games (8 UEFA and 1 CSF) none of them ended in a tie (22 total goals). Except for Ghana, CAF performance was abysmal (they would have been dead last). UEFA, who is having a bad WC, has played more than 50% more inter-confederation games and still has fewer losses.

Observations

For the third time in history a CAF team has made it to the Quarter-Finals, all three teams (Cameron 1990, Senegal 2002, Ghana 2010) needed extra time to advance. USA has won their group and finished in 12^th place overall in the world cup; during 390+ (probably over 410) minutes of playing time they had the lead for about 2 minutes (winning goal vs. Algeria was scored at 90'+2' and the game ended at 90'+4').

Xabi Alonso of Spain got a yellow card in 74' against Portugal , this was Spain's first yellow card of the world cup. On the other hand, Chile finished with 13 yellow and 1 red cards. Among the quarter finalists, Argentina and Paraguay have 5 yellows, Uruguay 3YC and 1RC, Netherlands and Ghana with 8YC, Brazil with 6YC and 1RC (Kaka) and last is Germany with 7YC and 1RC (Klose) . Interesting that both Brazil's and Germany's red cards (really second yellows) were given to stars who are playing attacking roles – these are the type of players who rarely get two yellows in a game.

Miscellaneous

All four of us went to the Paraguay – Japan game in Pretoria, as you know that game ended up going to Extra Time and a Penalty Shoot Out. Getting out of the lower stands Loftus field is very hard and time consuming when the stadium is near full, so by the time we got to our car (we parked right in-front of the Syrian Embassy) is was after 7pm. Our plan was to go to Pilanesberg Game Reserve for a "Safari". Our Hotel in Pilanesberg was about 160km (over 100mi) away from the Stadium and we had to face the fact that the Spain – Portugal match which we all wanted to see was starting at 8:30pm.

We headed west from Pretoria as fast as we could and after about 80km when started heading north is become clear that we are not going to make it to the hotel in time for the game. Adi called the Hotel to confirm direction and the night clerk told him that to get to the hotel we need to make a right at the four way stop sign. Informing him that we are still about 80km away and just started to head north on R556 from the N4 (a major road) didn't change the directions. We gave up on him and trust my memory that we need to make a right before Sun City at R5xx. I was driving fairly fast (100-120kph) on a dark two line highway (after all we have a big game to catch) and hoping that we will be able to identify the correct right hand turn.

At 8:30pm we are about 30km south east of Sun City (which is the precise location of the "middle of no-where") we see two huge TV screens starting to show the game. We pull left and turn, ask for direction for the entrance which was another left and enter the compound after a quick security check. We found some plastic lawn chairs and watched the game. It turned out that this was a setup for the people of the Bafokeng nation to watch the WC games. During half time and after the game the PA announcer welcomed their guests from Israel both in English and Setswana (the local language). This was an experience of a life time.

Since we still needed to verify direction both Adi and I used out Blackberry to ask for directions since "right at the four way stop sign" didn't inspire confidence in us. I also want to ask two men in uniform about directions while waiting for email responses. I got good directions from the two men, as well as an offer for me to wait 15 min after the game and they'll take the local fire truck and lead me to the hotel; I politely declined, but I think that they might have been disappointed.

When we got to the (less than half an hour after the game ended), we got our "chalet" key from the night clerk and driving instructions "Go back the why you come, before the gate turn right and hopefully you will find it" – we did find it.

The next day after a late breakfast, we bought a night safari tour for the four us. Around 11:00 having nothing better to do Lior, Gil and I decided to go for a tour of the game reserve on our own (Adi stayed in the chalet). We had little expectations since we know that the best time to see wild animals in just after sun rise. As soon as we started the tour we picked a dirt road and headed north. After one of the turns a driver of a tour van waves me over to come beside him and tell us to turn back and continue straight on the road from which we turned. As it turned out, about 2km down the road across a little river we saw an elephant carcass and two lionesses were munching on it.

During the night tour we returned to the same place and we also saw a young male lion along with the lionesses. While we were watching a hippo showed put and started bellowing at the lions to go away – she had some baby hippos and thought that the lions would go after them once they were done with the elephant (which died a week earlier). After about 5 min of a standoff, the lions backed away but only as far as hiding behind nearby bushes.

As it turned out we missed seeing a leopard by half an ½ on both our day tour and the night tour (once to early and once too late so on average we saw a leopard twice J). However we did get to see both black and white Rhinos and live Elephants as well to get 3 out of the big 5. The game reserve itself was teeming with wild animals from birds, to gnu (not the operating system), Antelopes, Impalas, Gazelles, Zebras, Giraffes as well as Jackals, Foxes, Warthogs and Baboons (probably several others that I can't remember right now). This was a nice diversion from the world cup and a highly recommended side trip.

Mid Round of 16 update

2010-06-29T04:11:00.001-05:00

The games

First six round of 16 matches are over and all everyone is talking about id two missed calls. One in the Germany – England game which prevented England from leveling the game after being down2:0 a minute or so earlier – clearly the whole ball crossed the whole goal line and a 2:2 game is very different from a 2:1 game. The second was a clear offside goal which gave Argentina a 1:0 lead over Mexico. Many people will call for video replay as the solution for this; I hope that this doesn't become the new standard. I think that the IFAB should mandate the 5 referees system (one center, 2 linesmen and 2 goal line referees) this will surly solve problems like the England goal, reduce dives, deal with hand balls in the box as well as other near goal incidents (more about this below).

So far the only group winner not to advance to the quarter-finals is the USA, so now 2 of my 5 teams are out and one still has to play round of 16 game. However, my top two remaining teams will face each other in the quarter-finals. The US – Ghana games was a close one, I thought that Ghana was better in the first half; the US controlled the second half, but suffered from lack of finishing ability. Combine this with early (game and extra time) defensive lapses and you end-up losing a game you could have won. What made the loss even harder was getting to the Royal Bafokeng Stadium; it is a fairly new (1999), relatively small stadium (under 45K), not in a heavily populated area (Phokeng about 15 km from Rustenburg). Coming from Pretoria, the traffic jam started 80km east of Rustenburg (almost 100km from the Stadium) – we barely made it to the stadium in time.

This is a game for which we didn't have advanced tickets (it was "supposed to be" England's round of 16 game) so there were a great deal of extra tickets. We choose to split our group and Lior and I ended with great seats, at half time we noticed that Bill Clinton and Mick Jagger were in the box almost behind us (about 10m away). We were seating next to a group of younger US fans and when they started chanting his name he stood up and waived at them. Of course, both Lior and I forgot our cameras, but I did find this picture on the web (this might very well be him waving at us). Katie Couric which was also in the VIP box with them, come at half time to talk to us and actually spent a good 10 min talking about the game and asking the younger fans (who were shirtless) how they are handling the cold. I would rather have a win, but this is a nice memory to add to the mental scrap book.

Last night we went to the Argentina – Mexico game in Soccer city. The game was very entertaining and having the emotions out of the game does give you a different perspective on the game. Unlike the night before, getting to the parking was very easy and since we had advance tickets (I got them in May of last year) all four of us were seating together. On the down side, FIFA selling 5^th tier tickets as category 1 seems wrong (position wise on the field, the location was very good). The distance from the park and walk to the stadium was about 30+ min of brisk walk, however along the route were people selling everything from earplugs to vuvuzelas to pins, gloves and the traditional items for a game such as scarves and hats.

Tonight we got to see Brazil beat Chile, our seats were at mid-field, when we saw we had row B, in the upper deck we got very excited – once we got into our section we were told that the top row is "A" L. The game itself was a great deal of fun and the party with the Brazilian fans afterwards was even better. Once more it become clear that the vuvuzelas are vuvuZeval (Zeval = Garbage). No one could hear the fans celebrating until after the game was over and all the "garbage" producers left – the singing, the chanting, the cheering was the best atmosphere we have seen so far.

Video Review vs. 5 Ref System

Given the great success of the 5 Ref System (5RS) experiment in the Europa League it is a great shame that FIFA choose not to implement it in the World Cup, give credit to Michel Platini for trying to get it implemented in this WC. As I stated above the 5RS, can resolve a great deal more than just goal/no goal calls and all these are done in real time without stoppage in play. A 5RS is easy to implement, not costly, and can be used at all levels.

Video review (VR): if we use the NHL approach of only reviewing goals the benefit it will provide a great deal less than the 5RS. The costs will be higher and the game will suffer delays which could have impact on both playing time and quality. If we decide to review all "high impact" calls we will have to deal with half a dozen or so close calls in the area, about the same number of offside calls, add corner vs. goal kick, a few dive/no dive calls, and potential cards incidents and most games will see 20 review stoppages. When was the last time a review in any sporting event lasted for under 30 seconds? An average review will probably take at least a minute. Can you see the game handling 20 minutes of dead time? Getting to the 90^th minute will become next to meaningless.

Some claim that we can do VR only for obvious cases. Two problems: Where do you draw the line? How do you justify not overturning non-obvious cases in which the ref made the wrong call, but require looking at a second or third angle? These "non-obvious" are just as wrong, have as much impact and can be corrected using the same technology as the one used to correct the "obvious" cases. On the other hand if you review everything, how long will the game last? What will all the interruptions do to the game?

Another item to consider is that many of the calls in the game are "in the opinion of the referee". How is this going to impact VR? Is the Center Referee going to walk to a TV monitor anytime there is a question? Is the booth official going to override the referee's opinion? E.g. not all cases of a ball and hand touching each other are "hand ball". Some are fairly clear one way or the other, but some are such that different people will make different call and both will be within the laws of the game how are such cases going to be handled?

Are we going to prescribe even more to the referees as to how to make calls? This is happening with the 4Ds prescriptions for DOGSO and the result is that referees that are following the 4Ds are making worse decisions (from the sprint of the game point of view) compared with referees that are following the simple view of DOGSO (Deny an Obvious Goal-Scoring Opportunity); see A perfect DOGSO for one such example.

Round 3 Summary

2010-06-26T07:58:00.001-05:00

Confederation Status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5	5		15	10	4	1	34	22	6	16	80%	76%
UEFA	13	6		29	10	10	9	40	33	27	6	52%	46%
OFC	1			3	0	3	0	3	2	2	0	50%	33%
CONF	3	2		9	2	4	3	10	7	8	-1	44%	37%
AFC	4	2		12	4	2	6	14	13	26	-13	42%	39%
CAF	6	1		18	3	5	10	14	14	22	-8	31%	26%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

So I give credit for AFC for doing well in the first round and their teams proceed to go 0:1:3 in the second round. I correct my "mistake" by claiming that it was a "flash in the pan" and the 4 AFC teams go 2:1:1. Which AFC teams will show up in the Round of 16. Both South Korea (vs. Uruguay) and Japan (vs. Paraguay) have winnable games.

Observations

UEFA has not done as well as expected with only 6 out of 13 teams advancing. Two "top-tier" (Italy and France) are out as winless last place finishers; of the second tier teams only Slovakia managed to advance, at least all of them got a win.

CSF has advanced 5 out of 5 teams, this might even be better than advancing 3 out of 3 teams (1970, 1978) when the WC was only 16 teams. Will FIFA give them 6 teams in 2014 (a host and extra .5 for the success)? Some credit should be given to Honduras; they have done the World Cup justice by fighting to the end and preventing Switzerland from taking Chile's well-earned spot in the round of 16.

Give credit for New Zealand for being the over achievers of the tournament, they showed grit and left everything they had on the field. However, I believe that in a league forward, they would have finished second to last. They had a total of 15 shots in 3 games, only 3 on target (both are lowest among all teams); they committed 61 fouls (second most, Australia had the most with 62). What they did show is that keeping 10 men behind the ball and having a hot GK can turn a poor team into a team with average results.

I really thought that CAF will get 3 or at least 2 teams into the round of 16. As it turned out only Ghana was the only one through and they were lucky at that. If they can make it to the quarters they'll be able to restore African pride.

Pre-Knockout Stage

2010-06-25T19:12:00.001-05:00

Round of 16

Just like World War II, the French are out before the fighting starts, the English are fighting the German and the US joins late with a bang.

The group results left FIFA with a poor bracket. Consider the four "pods" (to borrow an NCAA term).

Pod A	Pod B	Pod C	Pod D
Uruguay-A1	Netherlands-E1	Argentina-B1	Paraguay-F1
South Korea-B2	Slovakia-F2	Mexico-A2	Japan-E2
USA-C1	Brazil-G1	Germany-D1	Spain-H1
Ghana-D2	Chile-H2	England-C2	Portugal-G2

Pod A is made up of teams for which advancing from the group stage is an accomplishment – one of them will be in the semi-finals, none of them can be viewed as a top eight team, yet one of them will finish fourth or better.

Pod B is the one pod which is well balanced, two world cup contenders (shame that one of them will have to miss the semis). An upstart (keep an eye on Chile four years from now) and an unknown which is hot after a big upset win.

Pod C has 3 teams which expected to be in the Semi-finals this time around (not that all three could have made it). And a team which advanced of out the group stage since 1994 – third best such streak after Germany (1954), Brazil (1970). Italy failed to advance this time and while the previous time they failed to advance was 1974, in 1994 they advanced as a 3rd place finisher.

Pod D another pod with three strong teams, but only Spain is a team we truly expected to see in the finals. Paraguay will see a semi-finals appetence as a great success (they never made the quarter-finals in the WC). While Portugal made it to the semis four years ago, this time around the hopes were this high, but realistic expectations were lower even a first round exit was a possibility)

USA – Algeria game

This is what the world cup is all about, an emotional roller coaster. From the joy of an early lead, to the disappointment of it being over ruled due to a bad offside call (they actually showed the replay with the "shadow" in the stadium – a big plus to the Organizing committee). From the despair of a second round slipping away due to countless number of missed opportunities to the euphoria of a winning goal in added time – to the unadulterated joy of a win in the game and the news from Port Elizabeth which meant the US winning the group.

On the down side – US fans still don't know how to be spectators. People come with elaborate headgear which can add 30cm-50cm to their height. Pregame this is great in the stands this is a problem since it blocks the view for many others. To make it worse, some fans get to their feet as soon as the ball crosses mid-field. I have been known to stand up during sporting events, so I have nothing against it in principle. The general rule is that after a few seconds you are back in your seat. You stand up to make a point or when there is real scoring chance, your team crossing mid-field is not a scoring opportunity.

Games in South Africa

To be fair was I anti-vuvuzelas before I got here. After the Spain – Honduras game I felt even stronger about them not belonging in the stadium. After last night, I ready to actually fight against them. I'm sure you have heard about the noise "pollution" – not my argument; Players can't hear each other – Normally I would say deal with it; inability to hear the whistle – now you have my attention; a player gets a YC because of it – ban it! But most of all, the reason I want all vuvuzelas banned is that they take away the ability of fans to support or relay their team. If your pro-vuvuzelas argument is based on tradition, you might want to know that this great form of "celebration" is not even a pre-teen ("He began with 500 trumpets in 2001").

The noise is non-stopping and very load even when a large group of fans tries to cheer, it is impossible to hear it even 5 rows away, forget about hearing it on the field. As far as I'm concerned the best reason to ban the vuvuzelas is the fans – I want to be able to support or boo my team and for the players on the field to hear it. I want to be able to get a section of the crowed to hear a "smart alec" remark made by a fan after a miss or a bad call. With the vuvuzelas in the stands – all these are gone and the big loser is the game.

Tie Breakers

There are questions about the tie breaking procedures used in during the group stage on the 2010 world cup. The official word is from 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Regulations, Article 39 bullet 5, page 41

The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;

b) goal difference in all group matches;

c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;

e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;

f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;

g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising (sic) Committee

Round 2 Summary

2010-06-22T13:23:00.001-05:00

Confederation Status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5			10	8	2	0	26	18	4	14	90%	87%
UEFA	13			20	7	8	5	29	25	16	9	55%	48%
OFC	1			2	0	2	0	2	2	2	0	50%	33%
CONF	3			6	1	3	2	6	6	7	-1	42%	33%
AFC	4			8	2	1	5	7	6	19	-13	31%	29%
CAF	6			12	1	4	7	7	6	15	-9	25%	19%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

Looks like AFC was a flash in the pan. However, New Zealand managed to "improve" on the surprise draw with Slovakia by holding the current World cup holder to a 0:0: tie.

Observations

A two wins un-scored upon Chile is the odds on favorite to be eliminated. I can't recall a case in which a team with two wins from two games was likely to be eliminated. Chile has to face Spain which must win in order to ensure advancement. In the other game, Switzerland, which also must win to ensure advancement, is facing Honduras which is ye to score a goal. If Spain wins 1:0 and Switzerland wins 2:1 (both reasonable scores), then Chile drops to third place in the group.

On the other hand Nigeria with two losses, only need Argentina to beat Greece (expected result) in order to control their own destiny – any type of a win will see them through and face one of the easier round of 16 opponents.

Clearly CSF with 90% success rate is doing extremely well and people are talking about a Brazil – Argentina final. I don't think that the dream final will happen. Brazil could have to face the "best" Europe has to offer (Spain, Netherlands and England) in order to reach the finals. Argentina could face Mexico, Germany and Portugal/Paraguay.

On the other hand, England could reach the semifinals with wins over Slovenia, Ghana (without their star) and Greece. Paraguay could reach the semifinals with wins over New Zealand, Japan/Denmark and Switzerland. I'm not saying that either will happen, but the fact that both a real possibility after two rounds have been played is saying something.

Last night I went to the Spain – Honduras game in Ellis park. Arguably, this stadium held the most important sporting event (when sporting and non-sporting impact is included) of all time. That event was the 1995 Rugby World Cup, if you haven't seen the movie Invictus – go rent it.

I went to the game with a FlyerTalk friend from Sandton, we drove down to the game early and watched the Chile – Switzerland game at the Troyeville hotel which is a very short walk from Ellis park. Since we drove down early there was no traffic to deal with and the bar at the hotel still had chairs, less than ½ an hour later the place was full. The game itself was enjoyable, but I had to use ear plugs for the first time in almost 30 years to keep down the noise from the vuvuzelas.

The only down side on a great day was when we headed back home, the people we parked with, asked for the rest of the money when we got to the car. A firm "no" and a short discussion ensued, and we got across the point that no more money is coming their way. On the way back we used a back way – avoiding the highway and we got back to Santon without even seeing a traffic jam. The drive from Santon back to Pretoria was very smooth, I'm still getting used to driving on the right hand side, and I was back in the room before midnight.

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups G-H)

2010-06-22T02:56:00.001-05:00

What could happen after the next game

Group G

June 25^th, early games:

Brazil – Portugal

Ivory Coast – North Korea

Brazil has advanced

Brazil will finish first with:

A tie or a win over Portugal.

Portugal will advance with:

A tie or a win over Brazil
A loss and Ivory Coast not winning against North Korea; or Ivory Coast wins and the combined GD in both games is less than 9
- If combined GD = 9: Ivory Coast scores at most 5 goals more than Portugal (if Ivory Coast scores 6 more goals -> Draw lots).

Portugal will finish first with:

A win

Ivory Coast will advance with

A win over North Korea provided Portugal losses and the combined GD in both games is over 9
- If combined GD = 9: Ivory Coast scores 7+ goals more than Portugal (if Ivory Coast scores 6 more goals -> Draw lots).

North Korea has been eliminated

Group H

June 25^th, late games:

Chile – Spain

Switzerland – Honduras

Chile will Advance with:

A tie or a win over Spain (first)
A loss, provided Switzerland doesn't win; or
A loss, provided both games end with a 1 goal victories and Switzerland scores at most 1 goals more than Chile

Spain will advance with:

A win over Chile
A tie, provided Switzerland doesn't win.
A 1 goal loss provided Switzerland loses by 1 goal.
A 2 goals loss provided one of the following:
- Switzerland loses by 1 goal while scoring no more goals than Spain.
- Honduras wins by 2 goals while scoring at most 2 goals more than Spain
A 3 goals loss provided Honduras wins by 1 goal while scoring at most 2 goals more than Spain

Spain will finish first with:

A win, provided Switzerland margin of victory (MOV) is not better than Spain's
- If Switzerland MOV is 1 better than Spain's: Switzerland scoring no more goals than Spain.

Switzerland will advance with

A win, provided Spain doesn't win
A tie, provided Spain loses
A one goal loss, provided Spain losses by 3+ goals
- If Spain loses by 2 goals: Switzerland scores more goals than Spain.

Spain will finish first with:

A win, provided Spain wins and Switzerland MOV is 2+ better than Spain's
- If Switzerland MOV is 1 better than Spain's: Switzerland scores more goals than Spain.

Honduras will advance with

A 2+ goals win over Switzerland provided the combined GD of both games is 5+

If combined GD = 4: Honduras scores 3+ goals more goals than Spain

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups C-F)

2010-06-20T13:13:00.001-05:00

What could happen after the next game

Group C

June 23^rd, early games:

Slovenia – England

USA – Algeria

Slovenia will Advance with:

A tie or win over England
A loss, provided USA – Algeria ends in a tie; or an Algeria one goal win while scoring at most 3 goals more than Slovenia.

Slovenia will finish first with:

A win over England.
A tie provided USA doesn't win; or USA wins by 1 goal while scoring less than Slovenia.
- If USA and Slovenia score the same number of goals –> draw lots

USA will Advance with:

A win over Algeria
A tie, provided England loses; or England ties while scoring at most 1 goal more than USA
- If England ties and scores 2 more goals than USA –> draw lots

USA will finish first with:

A 2+ goals win and Slovenia – England tie.
A 1 goal win and Slovenia – England tie while scoring more goals than Slovenia.
- If USA and Slovenia score the same number of goals –> draw lots
A win and England wins while scoring at most 1 goal more than USA.
- If England scores 2 goals more than USA –> draw lots

England will advance with:

A win over Slovenia:
A tie, provided USA loses; or USA ties while England scores 3+ goals more than USA
- If USA ties and scores 2 less goals than England –> draw lots

England will finish first with:

A win and USA Not wining.
A win and USA wins while England scores 3+ goals more than USA.
- If England scores 2 goals more than USA –> draw lots

Algeria will advance with:

A win plus England not beating Slovenia

Group D

June 23^rd, late games:

Ghana – Germany

Serbia – Australia

Ghana will Advance with:

A tie or a win over Germany
A 1 goal loss, provided Serbia ties while scoring at most 1 goal more than Ghana
A loss provided Australia wins and the combined GD in both games is less than 5
- If combined GD = 5: Australia scores no more goals than Ghana (if Australia scores 1 goal more than Ghana –> Draw lots)

Ghana will finish first with:

A win over Germany.
A tie and Serbia not beating Australia.

Germany will advance with:

A win over Ghana
A tie provided Serbia – Australia tie; or Australia wins by no more than 6 goals
- If Australia wins by 7 goals: Australia scores at most 3 goals more than Germany.

Germany will finish first with:

A win and a Serbia's margin of victory is at most 2 more than Germany's
- If Serbia's Margin of victory is 3 more than Germany's: Serbia scoring at most 2 goals more than Germany.

Serbia will advance with

A win over Australia
A tie, provided a Germany loss; or a Ghana loss by 2+ goals
- If Ghana losses by 1 goal: Serbia scores 2+ goals more than Ghana.

Australia will advance with

A win provided Germany losses
A 8+ goals win provided Germany ties
A 7 goals win provided Germany ties while scoring 4+ more goals than Germany
A win provided Ghana losses and the combined GD of both games is 6+
- If combined GD = 5: Australia scores 2+ goals more than Ghana (if Australia scores 1 goal more than Ghana –> Draw lots)

Group E

June 24^th, late games:

Netherlands – Cameron

Japan – Denmark

Netherlands has advanced

Netherlands will finish first with:

A tie or a win over Cameron.
A loss and one of the following provided Japan – Denmark end in a tie; of the combined GD of both games is no more than 2 (Japan win), 3 (Denmark win).
- If Japan wins and combined GD = 3: Japan scores at most 2 goals more than Netherlands.
- If Denmark wins and combined GD = 4: Denmark scores at most 1 goal more than Netherlands.

Japan will advance with:

A tie or a win over Denmark

Japan will finish first with:

A win and a Netherlands loss and combined GD of both games is greater than 3
- If combined GD = 3: Japan scoring 3+ goals more than Netherlands.

Denmark will advance with

A win over Japan

Denmark will finish first with:

A win and a Netherlands loss and combined GD of both games is greater than 4
- If combined GD = 4: Japan scoring 2+ goals more than Netherlands.

Cameron has been eliminated

Group F

June 24^th, early games:

Paraguay – New Zealand

Italy – Slovakia

Paraguay will advance with:

A tie or a win over Italy
A loss provided Italy – Slovakia end in a tie; or Slovakia wins and the combined GD of both games is no more than 3
- If combined GD = 4: Slovakia scores at most 2 goals more than Paraguay.

Paraguay will finish first with:

A win or a tie and Italy wins by 1 goal
- If Italy wins by 2 goals: Italy scores no more goals than Paraguay (if Italy scores 1 goal more than Paraguay –> Draw lots).

Italy will Advance with:

A win over Slovakia
A tie and New Zealand loss; or New Zealand ties while scoring less goals than Italy
- If both New Zealand and Italy score than same number of goals –> Draw lots

Italy will finish first with:

A win over Slovakia and margin of victory is greater than New Zealand's Margin of victory.
- If Margin of victory is the same: scoring more goals than New Zealand (if both score the same number of goal -> Draw lots).

New Zealand will advance with:

A win over Paraguay
A tie and Italy ties while scoring less goals than New Zealand
- If both New Zealand and Italy score than same number of goals –> Draw lots

New Zealand will finish first with:

A win over Paraguay and Italy's not wining.
A win and margin of victory is greater than Italy's Margin of victory.
- If Margin of victory is the same: scoring more goals than New Zealand (if both score the same number of goal -> Draw lots).

Slovakia will advance with:

A win over Italy and New Zealand not wining
A win over Italy and Paraguay loss provided the combined GD of both games is more than 4
- If combined GD = 4: Slovakia scores 3+ goals more than Paraguay.

US World Cup streaks

2010-06-17T20:59:00.001-05:00

Central and Eastern European

The US plays Slovenia tomorrow (later today in South Africa).

The US record against Central and Eastern European teams in the WC (all last 20 years):

1990: Czechoslovakia – US 5:1

1990: Austria – US 2:1

1994: Romania – US 1:0

1998: Germany – US 2:0

1998: Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002: Poland – US 3:1

2002: Germany – US 1:0

2006: Czech Republic – US 2:0

That is a 0:0:8 record.

Third game in World Cups

At least that US can recover in the third game of the group stage against Algeria.

Well, in third games:

1930: Argentina – US 6:1 (Semi-Finals)

1950: Chile – US 5:2

1990: Austria – US 2:1

1994: Romania – US 1:0

1998: Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002: Poland – US 3:1

2006: Ghana – US 2:1

That is a 0:0:7 record .

Selected teams

So how did the US do against a fairly impressive list of 4 WC holders, 4 other teams that made the Semi-Finals and 3 teams that are not "also run"? (The teams are Brazil (5WC), Italy (4WC), Argentina (2WC), England (1WC), Portugal (SF), Spain (SF), Belgium (SF), Chile (SF), Mexico (QF), Paraguay and Colombia)

The overall record is 6:2:6, excluding the WC winners the record is 5:0:2. If we also exclude "3^rd game", the record is a very impressive 5:0:1 (a 3:1 loss to Spain in 1950).

Can the US break these two nasty streaks?

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups A-B)

2010-06-17T18:39:00.001-05:00

What could happen after the next game

Group A

June 22^nd, early games:

Uruguay – Mexico

France – South Africa

Uruguay will Advance with:

A tie or a win over Mexico (first)
A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 5 (if France wins) or less than 6 (if South Africa wins)
- If France wins and combined GD = 5: France scores at most 2 goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)
- If South Africa wins and combined GD = 6: South Africa scores at most 3 goals more than Uruguay.

Mexico will Advance with:

A tie or a win over Uruguay (first if they win)
A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 4 (if France wins) or less than 5 (if South Africa wins)
- If France wins and combined GD = 4: France scores at most 3 goals more than Mexico.
- If South Africa wins combined GD = 5: South Africa scores at most 1 goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)

France will advance with:

A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
- If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 4; or GD=4 and France scores 4+ goals more than Mexico
- If Uruguay loses: combined GD of both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and France scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)

South Africa will advance with:

A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
- If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and South Africa scores 3+ goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)
- If Uruguay loses: combined GD in both games is more than 6; or GD=6 and South Africa scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay

Group B

June 22^nd, late games:

Argentina – Greece

South Korea – Nigeria

Argentina will Advance with:

A two goal loss or better
Any loss, provided South Korea doesn't win; or the combined GD in both games is less than 5
- If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina

Argentina will finish first with:

A tie or a win over Greece.
A two goals or less loss to Greece and South Korea not beating Nigeria.
A one or two goals loss and South Korea beating Nigeria and the combined GD in both games is less than 5.
- If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina.

South Korea will advance with:

A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than Greece's vs. Argentina
- If margin of victory is the same: Greece scored at most 1 more goal than South Korea
A tie, provided a Greece loses; or Greece tie while scoring at most 1 goal more than South Korea

South Korea will finish first with:

A win and a Greece win and combined GD in both game is greater than 5 and Greece win is by no more than South Korea's win
- If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores 3+ goals more than Argentina.

Greece will advance with

A 3+ goal win over Argentina (first if South Korea margin of victory is worse than Greece's)
A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than South Korea's vs. Nigeria
- If margin of victory is the same Greece need to score at least 2 more goals than South Korea
A tie, provided South Korea loses; or a South Korea tie while scoring 2 or less goals than Greece.

Nigeria will advance with

A win and a Greece loss to Argentina

Round 1 Summary

2010-06-16T21:31:00.001-05:00

Confederation Status

(pre South Africa – Uruguay game)

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5			5	3	2	0	14	8	6	2	80%	73%
AFC	4			4	2	0	2	6	8	2	6	50%	50%
UEFA	13			9	2	5	2	11	2	7	-5	50%	41%
OFC	1			1	0	1	0	1	4	6	-2	50%	33%
CAF	6			6	1	2	3	5	2	3	-1	33%	28%
CONF	3			3	0	2	1	2	1	1	0	33%	22%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

AFC has got to be the surprise confederation so far. In the last three WCs, Non-Host AFC teams had only 2 wins in 30 games. In the first round they won 2 of the first 3 game and North Korea almost pulled a tie against Brazil.

Observations

Mexico needs to beat France and even that might not be enough.

South Korea has done them self proud, but the battle is just starting. They might be able to recover from a 1 goal loss to Argentina, but anything else will force them to look for help.

Slovenia is in a must win game, a win and they are through, a loss and they need to beat England in the last game. In case of a draw they might still need to beat England in the last game (assuming England and USA beat Algeria as well).

Ghana – Australia will be a very telling match, if Ghana wins they are basically in the next round, if Australia wins, race from 2^nd in the group is once more wide open.

Cameron – Denmark was expected to be the game which will determine who will advance. It is now turned into an elimination game.

Both Italy and Paraguay should be very happy at this point. Italy will need to find some scoring if they want to avoid the Netherlands in the round of 16.

Brazil needs to beat Ivory Coast if they want to sleep easy. A tie or a loss and the game against Portugal becomes a must win game (a one goal victory over North Korea is just not enough).

Biggest loser of round 1? Chili. After beating Honduras they figured that a tie against Switzerland will be enough to see them advance. Now they need to beat Switzerland by multiple goals in order to have a chance (Spain will beat Honduras by multiple goals and the game against Chile will be a do or die game for both teams).

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups E-H)

2010-06-15T15:26:00.001-05:00

What could happen after the next game

Group E

Netherlands will advance with a win over Japan combined with combined with Cameron not beating Denmark.
Japan will advance with a win over Netherlands combined with combined with Denmark not beating Cameron.
Cameron will be eliminated with a loss combined with Netherlands not losing to Japan.
Denmark will be eliminated with a loss combined with Japan not losing to Netherlands.

Group F

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group G

Brazil will advance with a win over Ivory Coast. They can win the group if the Portugal – North Korea game end in a draw.
Ivory Coast and Portugal cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
North Korea will be eliminated with a loss to Portugal.

Group H

Switzerland will advance with a win over Chile combined with combined with Honduras not beating Spain.
Chile will advance with a win over Switzerland combined with combined with Spain not beating Honduras.
Spain will be eliminated with a loss combined with Chile not losing to Switzerland.
Honduras will be eliminated with a loss combined with Switzerland not losing to Chile.

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups A-D)

2010-06-13T16:57:00.001-05:00

What could happen after the next game

Group A

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group B

South Korea will advance with a win over Argentina combined with combined with Nigeria not beating Greece.
Argentina will advance with a win over South Korea combined with combined with Greece not beating Nigeria.
Nigeria will be eliminated with a loss combined with Argentina not losing to South Korea. (Corrected)
Greece will be eliminated with a loss combined with South Korea not losing to Argentina. (Corrected)

Group C

Slovenia will advance with a win over USA. They can win the group if the England – Algeria game end in a draw.
England and USA cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
Algeria will be eliminated with a loss to England.

Group D

Germany will advance with a win over Serbia combined with combined with Australia not beating Ghana.
Ghana will advance with a win over Australia combined with combined with Serbia not beating Germany.
Serbia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Ghana not losing to Australia.

Australia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Germany not losing to Serbia.

2010 WCQ Update (post October 10th games)

2009-10-11T01:34:00.001-05:00

Overall Status

Qualified (19): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands, North Korea, Brazil(*), Ghana, England(*), Spain(*), Paraguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Germany(*), Denmark, Serbia, Italy, Chile, Mexico, USA
Formality (0):
One foot in (1): Switzerland(P)
Looking good (1): Slovakia(P)
Open (11): 22 teams including 6 playoff teams are still in the chase (add 2 above and 10 bellow to make the 34 teams that are still alive).

Playoff (6/12): New Zealand, Bahrain, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, France(*), Ireland

On life support (10): Norway, Kenya, Mozambique, Latvia, Israel,Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Sweden, Venezuela

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(P) - Assured of a playoff spot

By Confederation

UEFA (13/53)

Qualified (7) Netherlands, England(*), Spain(*), Germany(*), Denmark, Serbia, Italy(*)(P)
Formality (0)
One foot in (1) Switzerland(P)
Looking good (1) Slovakia(P)
Alive (16 -> 4) Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, Russia(P), Bosnia-Herzegovina(P), Croatia, Ukraine, France(P)(*), Ireland(P), Norway, Israel, Latvia,Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Sweden,

Second Place Table (by points lost, blue = one game left)

Russia(4) -6 +9 (+11 GD if Azerbaijan finishes 6^th)
Bosnia-Herzegovina(5) -8 +10
Greece(2) -8 +3
Ukraine(6) -9 +4
France(7) -9 +1
Slovenia(3) -10 +6
Ireland(8) -10 +2
Portugal(1) -11 +4
Norway(9) -14 +2

Eliminated (28) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Finland, Wales, Belgium, Belarus, Macedonia, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Austria, Poland
Did not participate/withdrew (0)

CSF (4.5/10)

Qualified (3) Brazil(*), Paraguay, Chile
Formality (0)
One foot in (0)
Looking good (0)
Alive (4 -> 1.5) Argentina(*), Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela
Eliminated (3) Peru, Bolivia, Colombia
Did not participate/withdrew (0)

CONCACAF (3.5/35)

Qualified (2) Mexico, USA
Formality (0)
One foot in (0)
Looking good (0)
Alive (2 -> 1.5) Costa Rica(P), Honduras(P)
Eliminated (31) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador
Did not participate/withdrew (0)

CAF (6/53)

Qualified (3) South Africa(*), Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire
Formality (0)
One foot in (0)
Looking good (0)
Alive (8 -> 3) Cameroon, Gabon, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, ,
Eliminated (39) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia, Rwanda, Benin, Mali, Sudan, Guinea, Malawi, Zambia, Morocco, Togo, Burkina Faso
Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea

AFC (4.5/46)

Qualified (4) Japan, Australia, South Korea, North Korea
Formality (0)
One foot in (0)
Looking good (0)
Alive (1 -> 0.5) Bahrain(P)
Eliminated (36) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia
Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines

OFC (0.5/10)

Qualified (0)
Formality (0)
One foot in (0)
Looking good (0)
Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (thirteen rounds already played, but all teams have played eight or nine games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams. So far Netherlands, England, Spain and Germany have qualified for the world cup and Russia qualified for the playoff..
CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (seventeen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009. So far Brazil and Paraguay have qualified.
CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (nine games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff. Practically, this has turned into a four team race for 3.5 spots.
CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (five rounds have been played) to determine five qualified teams. So far South Africa (host), Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire have qualified
AFC: Final group phase (4th round) has been completed. Japan, Australia, South Korea and North Korea have qualified for world cup. Bahrain has qualified for the playoff against New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against Bahrain with the winner qualifying for the world cup.

Who might be in or out next match

All teams that do not qualify or advance will be eliminated after the next game.

UEFA: The next full round is to take place on Oct 14^th.

Group 1

Denmark qualified.
Portugal will advance to the playoff with home win over Malta or a draw combined with Sweden not beating Albania at home or a loss combined Sweden loss and Hungary not winning in Denmark. Portugal can also advance with a 3 goals or less loss with Sweden draw against Albania and if even if Hungary beats Denmark as long as the combined scores have a goal differential of 7 or less.
Sweden advance to the playoff with a win over Albania combined with Portugal not beating Malta. Sweden could finish second with a draw, but will not qualify to the playoff based on having a worse goal differential than Norway.
Hungary will advance to the playoff with a win at Denmark and Portugal losing at home to Malta and Sweden not beating Albania and the combined scores of the Hungary and Portugal games have a goal differential of 8 or more.

Group 2

Switzerland is assured on a playoff spot
Switzerland will qualify with a home win or draw against Israel or Greece not beating Luxembourg at home.
Greece will qualify with a win over Luxembourg combined with a Switzerland home loss to Israel.
Greece will advance to the playoff with a win, or Israel not winning in Switzerland and Latvia not beating Moldova at home with a combined goals in Greece loss and Latvia win of seven or more.
Israel will advance to the playoff with a win at Switzerland combined with Greece not wining at home over Luxembourg.
Latvia will advance to the playoff with a win over Moldova and Greece losing to Luxembourg and Israel not winning in Switzerland and the combined scores of the Latvia and Greece games have a goal differential of 7 or more.

Group 3

Slovakia assured of a playoff spot
Slovakia will qualify with an away win over Poland or Slovenia not winning win at San Marino.
Slovenia will qualify with a win in San Marino combined with Slovakia not winning in Poland.
Slovenia will advance to the playoff with a win in San Marino or Czech Republic not beating Northern Ireland at home.
Czech Republic will advance to the playoff with a home win over Northern Ireland combined with Slovenia not winning in San Marino.
Northern Ireland will advance to the playoff with a win at the Czech Republic and Slovenia loss at San Marino and the combined scores have a goal differential of 7 or more.

Group 4

Germany qualified
Russia advanced to the playoff.

Group 5

Spain qualified
Bosnia advanced to the playoff.

Group 6

England qualified
Ukraine will advance to the playoff if their result in Andorra is as good or better than Croatia's result in Kazakhstan. They will also advance with a loss of 3 or less goals if Croatia doesn't win.
Croatia will advance to the playoff with a win over Kazakhstan combined with Ukraine not wining in Andorra or with a tie combined with Ukraine losing by 4 or more goals.

Group 7

Serbia qualified.

France advanced to the playoff.

Group 8

Italy qualified
Ireland advanced to the playoff.

Group 9

Netherlands qualified.
Norway will be advance to the playoff if Portugal loses to Malta by 4 or more goals and Sweden ties Albania and Hungary doesn't beat Denmark by 5 or more goals.

CSF: Round 18 is to take place Oct 14^th^.

Brazil qualified.
Paraguay qualified.
Chile qualified.
Chile will be assured of a playoff spot with a draw.
Argentina will qualify with an away win in Uruguay or a draw combined Ecuador not beating Chile by 5 or more goals.
Argentina will advance to the playoff with a loss at Uruguay combined with Ecuador not winning in Chile or a draw and an Ecuador win by 5 or more goals.
Uruguay will qualify with a home win over Argentina.
Uruguay will advance to the playoff with a draw against Argentina combined with Ecuador not winning in Chile or an Ecuador loss combined with Venezuela not winning in Brazil or a Venezuela win but such that the combined goal differential is less than 15.
Ecuador will qualify with a 5 or more goals win and a Uruguay - Argentina draw.
Ecuador will advance to the playoff with a win or a draw combined with Argentina beating Uruguay by 12 goals and Venezuela not beating Brazil by 3 or more goals.
Venezuela will advance to the playoff with a win in Brazil and Argentina wining in Uruguay and the combined goal deferential is 15 or more and either Ecuador losing in Chile or Ecuador draw and Venezuela winning by 3 or more goals.

CONCACAF: Round 10 is to take place Oct 14^th^.

USA qualified.
Mexico qualified.
Costa Rica will qualify with a win in USA or if Honduras does not win in El Salvador.
Costa Rica is assured of a playoff spot.
Honduras will with a win in El Salvador combined with Costa Rica not winning in USA.
Honduras is assured of a playoff spot

CAF: Round 6 is to take place Nov 14^th^.

Group A

Cameron will qualify if their result at home vs Morocco is as good or better than Gabon's result in Togo. They will also advance with a one goal loss if Gabon doesn't win.
Gabon will qualify with a win over Togo combined with Cameron not beating Morocco or with a tie combined with Cameron losing by 2 or more goals.

Group B (Round 5 games are to be played on Oct 11^th)

Mozambique will be eliminated a loss or a draw in Nigeria or a Tunisia win over Kenya.
Kenya will be eliminated with a loss or a draw in Tunisia win in Nigeria.

Group C (Round 5 game Rwanda at Algeria is to be played on Oct 11^th)

Algeria will qualify with a home win over Rwanda combined a one goal loss at Egypt; or with a tie, one goal loss, or a two goal loss while scoring two goals against Rwanda combined with a draw or better in Egypt.
Egypt will qualify with a 2 goals win over Algeria or a win combined with Algeria not beating Rwanda or a draw combined with Algeria losing to Rwanda by three goals or 2:0.
Egypt will be eliminated if they can't beat Algeria at home unless Algeria loses at home to Rwanda on Oct 11th by three goals or 2:0 in which case a draw will eliminate Algeria.

Group D

Ghana qualified.

Group E

Cote d'Ivoire qualified.

AFC: Bahrain will qualify with a win or a non-goalless draw at New Zealand.

OFC: New Zealand qualify with a home win over Bahrain or a PK shootout win after a goalless draw.