2018 and 2022 World Cup hosting predictions

2018 World Cup vote

A three way race, with Spain/Portugal the likely winner since England and Russia keep fighting. The Netherlands/Belgium will be eliminated in the first round. With FIFA not liking the English newspapers for their expose my guess is that England will be out in the second round. With the England votes favoring Iberians, Russia will just miss out. If England can survive the first two rounds (they are likely to get the Belgium vote), they have a good change against Russia and will probably lose to the Iberians. If England loses the Asian support, I can see the Iberian pulling a "Rio" and sending some support toward the Low Countries in order to eliminate England in Round 1.

My guess for Initial support

Spain/Portugal	England	Russia	Netherlands/Belgium
Spain	England	Russia	Belgium
Argentina	USA	Cameron	France
Brazil	T&T	Ivory Coast
Paraguay	Cyprus	Turkey
Qatar	Japan	Germany
Egypt	Thailand	Sepp Blatter
Guatemala	South Korea

My guess: Spain/Portugal

2018 World Cup vote

If I'm correct and the Iberians wins 2018, it means that Qatar will win 2022. Otherwise it is the US should win. Regardless, Japan and South Korea will be eliminated early. Australia is likely to be out in the third and that will put Qatar vs. US in the final round. Qatar has the votes of the three South American (if Spain/Portugal win 2018 they are basically committed) the same is true for Qatar, Egypt and Spain. They are also likely to get South Korea, Japan and Thailand in the final rounds as well as Cameroon and Ivory Coast which brings them to 11 out of the 22 votes. If Guatemala defects it is all over for the US. It is unlikely that Russia will support Qatar (due to their alliance with the Iberians) and the US can probably count on T&T, England, Belgium, Germany and maybe France add one for the US and we have a total of 6 or 7. The US needs Turkey and Cyprus as well as Sepp Blatter and Guatemala to just be tied at 11.

My guess: Qatar

The US best chance is for Russia to win 2018 which will break the Latin-Arab alliance and might get the 3 South American votes as well as keeping Guatemala at home. I don't see Qatar with less than 6 votes which should guarantee them a place in the final two.