Pre Quarter Finals update

Four years ago at this time, I picked Chile as my dark horse for this World Cup. Considering the draw they got, I think that they did very well - eliminating the World Cup and double European champions Spain, taking the favorites, Brazil to PKs and almost wining at the end of Extra Time. So I'm going to pick a dark horse for 2018 and this time, there is really only one choice that is has to be Belgium.

My two favorites before the draw were #1 Brazil and #2 Germany. So far Brazil have been very pedestrian and based on level of play so far should be considered an underdog to Colombia tomorrow, especially due to Neymar's injury. Germany other than the demolishing of Portugal in the first match have looked very vulnerable against 2nd tier opponents (Ghana, USA and Algeria). Yes I know that two of them made it to the last 16, but based on level of play (other than the Goalies) none of these team is a true world top 16. This means that this might be the first time since 1930 that neither of Germany not Brazil will finish in the top 3 (each had also finished 4th once, when the other won in 1958 and 1974).

At this point there are 2 team:

1. Won all 4 games without Extra Time - Columbia & Netherlands
2. Won 3 group game and a round of 16 AET - Argentina & Belgium
3. Won 3 games & tied 1 - France & Germany (1, AET)
4. Won 2 games & tied 2, advanced on PK - Brazil & Costa Rica

The first two will face the last two, but the others will face team with basically the same record.

UEFA record at the later rounds is outstanding. Since the group stage and quarterfinal rounds have been in place (1954). Only one, in 2010, did UEFA had less the half the quarter finalists - 3 and all three made it to the Semis and finished 1,2,3. With the exception of 1930, UEFA always had at least 2 team in the top 4 and since 1954 (15 WCs) they have average 2.93 teams in the Semis. This time we are assured of having 1 CSF team, 1 UEFA team and have an outside chance of the first CONCACAF team in the Semis since 1930 (no, it wasn't Mexico). However it is likely to be at least 2 UEFA teams once again.

I would put Brazil - Colombia as tossup if Neymar is playing. France as a mild favorite over Germany, Argentina as a very slight favorite over Belgium and Netherlands as a huge favorite over Costa Rica. 

At this point my dream final (as a partisan fan) is Brazil over Netherlands. However as stated above, the way Brazil is playing they are not likely to make it. History is also against this final, or even Brazil winning:

1. Every team that beat Netherlands in the final lost in the group stage.
1. 1974: (West) Germany to East Germany
2. 1978: Argentina to Italy
3. 2010: Spain to Switzerland

Only one other World Cup winner lost a game during the World Cup ((West) Germany in 1954 to Hungary which ended up losing the final)

2. No team that held the Confederation Cup at the time of the World Cup was able to win the World Cup
1. 2013 - Brazil (WC won by ???)
2. 2009 - Brazil (WC won by Spain), Brazil out in the 1/4
3. 2005 - Brazil (WC won by Italy), Brazil out in the 1/4
4. 2001 - France (WC won by Brazil), France out GS
5. 1997 - Brazil (WC won by France), Brazil lost the final
6. 1992 - Argentina (WC won by Brazil), Argentina out in R16
7. 1995, 1999 & 2003 winners - Denmark, Mexico & France also failed to win the subsequent WC.