US World Cup streaks

Central and Eastern European

The US plays Slovenia tomorrow (later today in South Africa).

The US record against Central and Eastern European teams in the WC (all last 20 years):

1990:    Czechoslovakia – US 5:1

1990:    Austria – US 2:1

1994:    Romania – US 1:0

1998:    Germany – US 2:0

1998:    Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002:    Poland – US 3:1

2002:    Germany – US 1:0

2006:    Czech Republic – US 2:0

That is a 0:0:8 record.

Third game in World Cups

At least that US can recover in the third game of the group stage against Algeria.

Well, in third games:

1930:    Argentina – US 6:1 (Semi-Finals)

1950:    Chile – US 5:2

1990:    Austria – US 2:1

1994:    Romania – US 1:0

1998:    Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002:    Poland – US 3:1

2006:    Ghana – US 2:1

That is a 0:0:7 record .

Selected teams

So how did the US do against a fairly impressive list of 4 WC holders, 4 other teams that made the Semi-Finals and 3 teams that are not "also run"? (The teams are Brazil (5WC), Italy (4WC), Argentina (2WC), England (1WC), Portugal (SF), Spain (SF), Belgium (SF), Chile (SF), Mexico (QF), Paraguay and Colombia)

The overall record is 6:2:6, excluding the WC winners the record is 5:0:2. If we also exclude "3^rd game", the record is a very impressive 5:0:1 (a 3:1 loss to Spain in 1950).

Can the US break these two nasty streaks?

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups A-B)

What could happen after the next game

Group A

June 22^nd, early games:

Uruguay – Mexico

France – South Africa

Uruguay will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Mexico (first)
  
• A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 5 (if France wins) or less than 6 (if South Africa wins)  
  
  • If France wins and combined GD = 5: France scores at most 2 goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)                               
    
  • If South Africa wins and combined GD = 6: South Africa scores at most 3 goals more than Uruguay.
    

Mexico will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Uruguay (first if they win)
  
• A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 4 (if France wins) or less than 5 (if South Africa wins)  
  
  • If France wins and combined GD = 4: France scores at most 3 goals more than Mexico.
    
  • If South Africa wins combined GD = 5: South Africa scores at most 1 goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)
    

France will advance with:

• A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
  
  • If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 4; or GD=4 and France scores 4+ goals more than Mexico
    
  • If Uruguay loses: combined GD of both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and France scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)  
    

South Africa will advance with:

• A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
  
  • If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and South Africa scores 3+ goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)
    
  • If Uruguay loses: combined GD in both games is more than 6; or GD=6 and South Africa scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay  
    

Group B

June 22^nd, late games:

Argentina – Greece

South Korea – Nigeria

Argentina will Advance with:

• A two goal loss or better
  
• Any loss, provided South Korea doesn't win; or the combined GD in both games is less than 5
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina
    

Argentina will finish first with:

• A tie or a win over Greece.
  
• A two goals or less loss to Greece and South Korea not beating Nigeria.
  
• A one or two goals loss and South Korea beating Nigeria and the combined GD in both games is less than 5.
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina.
    

South Korea will advance with:

• A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than Greece's vs. Argentina
  
  • If margin of victory is the same: Greece scored at most 1 more goal than South Korea
    
•  A tie, provided a Greece loses; or Greece tie while scoring at most 1 goal more than South Korea
  

South Korea will finish first with:

• A win and a Greece win and combined GD in both game is greater than 5 and Greece win is by no more than South Korea's win
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores 3+ goals more than Argentina.
    

Greece will advance with

• A 3+ goal win over Argentina (first if South Korea margin of victory is worse than Greece's)
  
• A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than South Korea's vs. Nigeria
  
  • If margin of victory is the same Greece need to score at least 2 more goals than South Korea
    
• A tie, provided South Korea loses; or a South Korea tie while scoring 2 or less goals than Greece.       
  

Nigeria will advance with

• A win and a Greece loss to Argentina
  

Round 1 Summary

Confederation Status

(pre South Africa – Uruguay game)

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5			5	3	2	0	14	8	6	2	80%	73%
AFC	4			4	2	0	2	6	8	2	6	50%	50%
UEFA	13			9	2	5	2	11	2	7	-5	50%	41%
OFC	1			1	0	1	0	1	4	6	-2	50%	33%
CAF	6			6	1	2	3	5	2	3	-1	33%	28%
CONF	3			3	0	2	1	2	1	1	0	33%	22%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

AFC has got to be the surprise confederation so far. In the last three WCs, Non-Host AFC teams had only 2 wins in 30 games. In the first round they won 2 of the first 3 game and North Korea almost pulled a tie against Brazil.

Observations

Mexico needs to beat France and even that might not be enough.

South Korea has done them self proud, but the battle is just starting. They might be able to recover from a 1 goal loss to Argentina, but anything else will force them to look for help.

Slovenia is in a must win game, a win and they are through, a loss and they need to beat England in the last game. In case of a draw they might still need to beat England in the last game (assuming England and USA beat Algeria as well).

Ghana – Australia will be a very telling match, if Ghana wins they are basically in the next round, if Australia wins, race from 2^nd in the group is once more wide open.

Cameron – Denmark was expected to be the game which will determine who will advance. It is now turned into an elimination game.

Both Italy and Paraguay should be very happy at this point. Italy will need to find some scoring if they want to avoid the Netherlands in the round of 16.

Brazil needs to beat Ivory Coast if they want to sleep easy. A tie or a loss and the game against Portugal becomes a must win game (a one goal victory over North Korea is just not enough).

Biggest loser of round 1? Chili. After beating Honduras they figured that a tie against Switzerland will be enough to see them advance. Now they need to beat Switzerland by multiple goals in order to have a chance (Spain will beat Honduras by multiple goals and the game against Chile will be a do or die game for both teams).

 

 

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups E-H)

What could happen after the next game

Group E

• Netherlands will advance with a win over Japan combined with combined with Cameron not beating Denmark.
  
• Japan will advance with a win over Netherlands combined with combined with Denmark not beating Cameron.
  
• Cameron will be eliminated with a loss combined with Netherlands not losing to Japan.
  
• Denmark will be eliminated with a loss combined with Japan not losing to Netherlands.
  

Group F

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group G

• Brazil will advance with a win over Ivory Coast. They can win the group if the Portugal – North Korea game end in a draw.
  
• Ivory Coast and Portugal cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
  
• North Korea will be eliminated with a loss to Portugal.
  

Group H

• Switzerland will advance with a win over Chile combined with combined with Honduras not beating Spain.
  
• Chile will advance with a win over Switzerland combined with combined with Spain not beating Honduras.
  
• Spain will be eliminated with a loss combined with Chile not losing to Switzerland.
  
• Honduras will be eliminated with a loss combined with Switzerland not losing to Chile.
  

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups A-D)

What could happen after the next game

Group A

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group B

• South Korea will advance with a win over Argentina combined with combined with Nigeria not beating Greece.
  
• Argentina will advance with a win over South Korea combined with combined with Greece not beating Nigeria.
  
• Nigeria will be eliminated with a loss combined with Argentina not losing to South Korea. (Corrected)
  
• Greece will be eliminated with a loss combined with South Korea not losing to Argentina. (Corrected)
  

Group C

• Slovenia will advance with a win over USA. They can win the group if the England – Algeria game end in a draw.
  
• England and USA cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
  
• Algeria will be eliminated with a loss to England.
  

Group D

• Germany will advance with a win over Serbia combined with combined with Australia not beating Ghana.
  
• Ghana will advance with a win over Australia combined with combined with Serbia not beating Germany.
  
• Serbia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Ghana not losing to Australia.
  

Australia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Germany not losing to Serbia.

2010 WCQ Update (post October 10th games)

Overall Status

• Qualified (19): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands, North Korea, Brazil(*), Ghana, England(*), Spain(*), Paraguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Germany(*), Denmark, Serbia, Italy, Chile, Mexico, USA
  
• Formality (0): 
  
• One foot in (1): Switzerland(P)
  
• Looking good (1): Slovakia(P)
  
• Open (11): 22 teams including 6 playoff teams are still in the chase (add 2 above and 10 bellow to make the 34 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (6/12): New Zealand, Bahrain, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, France(*), Ireland
• On life support (10): Norway, Kenya, Mozambique, Latvia, Israel,Czech Republic, Northern Ireland,  Hungary, Sweden, Venezuela
  

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(P) - Assured of a playoff spot

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (7) Netherlands, England(*), Spain(*), Germany(*), Denmark, Serbia, Italy(*)(P)
• Formality (0) 
• One foot in (1) Switzerland(P)
• Looking good (1) Slovakia(P)
  
• Alive (16 -> 4) Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, Russia(P), Bosnia-Herzegovina(P), Croatia, Ukraine, France(P)(*), Ireland(P), Norway, Israel, Latvia,Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Sweden,
  
• Second Place Table (by points lost, blue = one game left)
  
1. Russia(4)                           -6      +9     (+11 GD if Azerbaijan finishes 6^th)
2. Bosnia-Herzegovina(5)   -8     +10
3. Greece(2)                           -8      +3
4. Ukraine(6)                         -9      +4    
5. France(7)                           -9      +1
6. Slovenia(3)                     -10      +6
7. Ireland(8)                        -10      +2
8. Portugal(1)                      -11      +4
9. Norway(9)                      -14       +2
• Eliminated (28) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Finland, Wales, Belgium, Belarus, Macedonia, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Austria, Poland
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (3) Brazil(*), Paraguay, Chile
• Formality (0)
  
• One foot in (0) 
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (4 -> 1.5) Argentina(*), Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela
• Eliminated (3) Peru, Bolivia, Colombia
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (2) Mexico, USA
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0) 
• Alive (2 -> 1.5)  Costa Rica(P), Honduras(P)  
• Eliminated (31) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, El Salvador
  
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (3) South Africa(*), Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
  
• Alive (8 -> 3) Cameroon, Gabon, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, ,
  
• Eliminated (39) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia, Rwanda, Benin, Mali, Sudan, Guinea, Malawi, Zambia, Morocco,  Togo, Burkina Faso
  
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (4) Japan, Australia, South Korea, North Korea
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) Bahrain(P)
• Eliminated (36) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia
  
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (thirteen rounds already played, but all  teams have played eight or nine games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams. So far Netherlands, England, Spain and Germany have qualified for the world cup and Russia qualified for the playoff..
   
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (seventeen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009. So far Brazil and Paraguay have qualified.
   
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (nine games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff. Practically, this has turned into a four team race for 3.5 spots.
   
4. CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (five rounds have been played) to determine five qualified teams. So far South Africa (host), Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire have qualified
   
5. AFC: Final group phase (4th round) has been completed. Japan, Australia, South Korea and North Korea have qualified for world cup. Bahrain has qualified for the playoff against New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against Bahrain with the winner qualifying for the world cup.

Who might be in or out next match

All teams that do not qualify or advance will be eliminated after the next game.

1. UEFA: The next full round is to take place on Oct 14^th.
• Group 1
  
• Denmark qualified.
• Portugal will advance to the playoff with home win over Malta or a draw combined with Sweden not beating Albania at home or a loss combined Sweden loss and Hungary not winning in Denmark. Portugal can also advance with a 3 goals or less loss with Sweden draw against Albania and if even if Hungary beats Denmark as long as the combined scores have a goal differential of  7 or less.
  
• Sweden advance to the playoff with a win over Albania combined with Portugal not beating Malta. Sweden could finish second with a draw, but will not qualify to the playoff based on having a worse goal differential than Norway.
  
• Hungary will advance to the playoff with a win at Denmark and Portugal losing at home to Malta and Sweden  not beating Albania and the combined scores of the Hungary and Portugal games have a goal differential of 8 or more.
• Group 2
  
• Switzerland is assured on a playoff spot
  
• Switzerland will qualify with a home win or draw against Israel or Greece not beating Luxembourg at home.
• Greece will qualify with a win over  Luxembourg combined with a Switzerland home loss to Israel.
• Greece will advance to the playoff with a win, or Israel not winning in Switzerland and Latvia not beating Moldova at home with a combined goals in Greece loss and Latvia win of seven or more.
  
• Israel will advance to the playoff with a win at Switzerland combined with Greece not wining at home over Luxembourg.
• Latvia will advance to the playoff with a win over Moldova and Greece losing to Luxembourg and Israel not winning in Switzerland and the combined scores of the Latvia and Greece games have a goal differential of 7 or more.
  
• Group 3
  
• Slovakia assured of a playoff spot
  
• Slovakia will qualify with an away win over Poland or Slovenia not winning win at San Marino.
  
• Slovenia will qualify with a win in San Marino combined with Slovakia not winning in Poland.
• Slovenia will advance to the playoff with a win in San Marino or Czech Republic not beating Northern Ireland at home.
  
• Czech Republic will advance to the playoff with a home win over Northern Ireland combined with Slovenia not winning in San Marino.
• 
  
• Northern Ireland will advance to the playoff with a win at the Czech Republic and Slovenia  loss at San Marino and the combined scores have a goal differential of 7 or more.
• Group 4
  
• Germany qualified
• Russia advanced to the playoff.
• Group 5
  
• Spain qualified
  
• Bosnia advanced to the playoff.
  
• Group 6
• England qualified
  
• Ukraine will advance to the playoff if their result in Andorra is as good or better than Croatia's result in Kazakhstan. They will also advance with a loss of 3 or less goals if Croatia doesn't win.
• Croatia will advance to the playoff  with a win over Kazakhstan combined with Ukraine not wining in Andorra or with a tie combined with Ukraine losing by 4 or more goals.
• Group 7
• Serbia qualified.
  
• France advanced to the playoff.
  
• Group 8
• Italy qualified
  
• Ireland advanced to the playoff.
• Group 9
  
• Netherlands qualified.
  
• Norway will be advance to the playoff if Portugal loses to Malta by 4 or more goals and Sweden ties Albania and Hungary doesn't beat Denmark by 5 or more goals.   
  
2. CSF: Round 18 is to take place Oct 14^th.
• Brazil qualified.
• Paraguay qualified.
• Chile qualified.
• Chile will be assured of a playoff spot with a draw.
• Argentina will qualify with an away win in Uruguay or a draw combined Ecuador not beating Chile by 5 or more goals.
• Argentina will advance to the playoff with a loss at Uruguay combined with Ecuador not winning in Chile or a draw and an Ecuador win by 5 or more goals.
• Uruguay will qualify with a home win over Argentina.
• Uruguay will advance to the playoff with a draw against Argentina combined with Ecuador not winning in Chile or an Ecuador loss combined with Venezuela not winning in Brazil or a Venezuela win but such that the combined goal differential is less than 15.
  
• Ecuador will qualify with a 5 or more goals win and a Uruguay - Argentina draw.
  
• Ecuador will advance to the playoff with a win or a draw combined with Argentina beating Uruguay by 12 goals and Venezuela not beating Brazil by 3 or more goals.
• Venezuela will advance to the playoff with a win in Brazil and Argentina wining in Uruguay and the combined goal deferential is 15 or more and either Ecuador losing in Chile or Ecuador draw and Venezuela winning by 3 or more goals.
3. CONCACAF: Round 10 is to take place Oct 14^th.
• USA qualified.
• Mexico qualified.
• Costa Rica will qualify with a win in USA or if Honduras does not win in El Salvador.
  
• Costa Rica is assured of a playoff spot.
• Honduras will with a win in El Salvador combined with Costa Rica not winning in USA.  
• Honduras is assured of a playoff spot
  
4. CAF: Round 6 is to take place Nov 14^th.
   • Group A
   • Cameron will qualify if their result at home vs Morocco is as good or better than Gabon's result in Togo. They will also advance with a one goal loss if Gabon doesn't win.
   • Gabon will qualify with a win over Togo combined with Cameron not beating Morocco or with a tie combined with Cameron losing by 2 or more goals.
   • Group B (Round 5 games are to be played on Oct 11^th)
   • Mozambique will be eliminated a loss or a draw in Nigeria or a Tunisia win over Kenya.
   • Kenya will be eliminated with a loss or a draw in Tunisia win in Nigeria.
   • Group C (Round 5 game Rwanda at Algeria is to be played on Oct 11^th)
   • Algeria will qualify with a home win over Rwanda combined a one goal loss at Egypt; or with a tie, one goal loss, or a two goal loss while scoring two goals against Rwanda combined with a draw or better in Egypt.
   • Egypt will qualify with a 2 goals win over Algeria or a win combined with Algeria not beating Rwanda or a draw combined with Algeria losing to Rwanda by three goals or 2:0.
     
   • Egypt will be eliminated if they can't beat Algeria at home unless Algeria loses at home to Rwanda on Oct 11th by three goals or 2:0 in which case a draw will eliminate Algeria.
   • Group D
     
   • Ghana qualified.
   • Group E
     
   • Cote d'Ivoire qualified.
     
5. AFC: Bahrain will qualify with a win or a non-goalless draw at New Zealand.
6. OFC: New Zealand qualify with a home win over Bahrain or a PK shootout win after a goalless draw.