2010 WCQ Update (post June 7th games)

Overall status

• Qualified: 5
• Alive: 90
• Eliminated: 104
• Did not participate/withdrew: 9
• Total: 208

Summary

• Qualified (5): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands(*)
• Formality (0):
• One foot in (1): England(*)
• Looking good (4): Paraguay, Spain(*), Brazil(*), Costa Rica
• Open (23): 72 teams including 1 playoff are still in the chase (add 5 above and 13 bellow to make the 90 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• On life support (13): Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Peru. Kenya, Guinea, Malawi

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(p') - Can do no worse than an AFC 5th place playoff spot.

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (1) Netherlands(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (1) England(*)
• Looking good (1) Spain(*)
• Alive (45 -> 10) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Germany(*), Russia, Wales, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Belarus, Croatia, Ukraine, Austria, France, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, Italy(*), Iceland, Macedonia, Norway, Scotland, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Montenegro
• Eliminated (5) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (2) Paraguay, Brazil(*)
• Alive (8 -> 2.5) Argentina(*), Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Peru
• Eliminated (0)
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Costa Rica
• Alive (5 -> 2.5) USA, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (29) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (20 -> 5) Cameroon, Gabon, Morocco, Togo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Zambia, Benin, Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Guinea, Malawi
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (3) Japan, Australia, South Korea
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (6 -> 1.5) Qatar, Bahrain, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran
• Eliminated (32) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (eight rounds already played, but most teams have played seven or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams.
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (thirteen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (four games already been played, USA & Costa Rica played five) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (two round has been played) to determine five qualified teams.
5. AFC: Final group phase (4th round) from 6 September 2008 - 17 June 2009 (Seven rounds already played) will qualify four teams and an additional two teams will qualify for a playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

Who might be in or out next match

1. UEFA: The next round is to take place on June 10th.
• Group 2 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Moldova will be eliminated with a tie or a loss to Luxemburg or a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Luxemburg will be eliminated with a loss at Moldova combined with a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Group 4
• Liechtenstein will be eliminated with a Russia win at Finland. With any other score they can still finish second after winning a tie breaker.
• Group 5 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Armenia will be eliminated with a tie or loss to Bosnia
• Estonia will be eliminated with a loss at Turkey combined with a Bosnia win at Armenia. A tie combined with a Bosnia win will virtually eliminate them (they will need to make up at least 22 goals with three games to win a playoff tiebreaker over Bosnia). A loss combined with a Bosnia tie will also virtually eliminate them (they will either have to make up 22+ goals on Bosnia or 14+ goals on Turkey).
• Group 8 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Montenegro will be eliminated with a loss at Bulgaria and Ireland not losing at Cyprus. A tie at Bulgaria plus Ireland win at Cyprus plus Italy not losing at Georgia will also eliminate Montenegro. If both Ireland and Italy win, Montenegro will be able to do no better than winning a tie-breaker with Ireland for second.
• Cyprus will be eliminated with a home loss to Ireland combined with Italy not losing in Georgia.
• Group 9
• Iceland will be eliminated with a loss at FYRM.
2. CSF: Round 14 is to take place June 10th.
• Peru will be eliminated with loss at Colombia combined Uruguay win at Venezuela or an Ecuador win over Argentina. A loss combined with an Ecuador draw will put Peru in a position to do no better than a tie-breaker for 5th (they will have to make up at least 16 goals in 4 games).
3. CONCACAF: Round 5 is to take place on June 10th. The USA @ Costa Rica round 5 game has been moved up from June 10th to June 3rd. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 3 is to take place June 20th-21st (Rwanda @ Egypt to be played on July 5th). At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
5. AFC: Round 8 is to take place on June 10th.
• Group A
• Bahrain can do no better than AFC’s 5th place playoff. They will clinch the playoff spot with a win over Australia or a tie combined with Qatar not winning in Japan.
• Qatar & Uzbekistan can do no better than getting into the AFC 5th place playoff in place of Bahrain.
• Uzbekistan will be eliminated with a Bahrain tie or win in Australia (June 10th) or a loss or a tie in Bahrain (June 17th).
• Qatar will be eliminated with a loss or a tie in Japan or a Bahrain win in Australia (if Bahrain ties, Qatar’s win over Japan plus Bahrain loss to Uzbekistan on June 17th will need to be by a combined total of 8 goals or more).
• Group B
• North Korea will be assured of no worse than a AFC5th place playoff spot if Iran loses at home to UAE. They will qualify with a win over Saudi Arabia on June 17th.
• Saudi Arabia will be assured of no worse than a AFC5th place playoff spot with a win at South Korea and Iran not beating UAE, or a tie combined with Iran loss.
• Iran will be eliminated with a loss to UAE combined with Saudi Arabia not losing in South Korea.
6. OFC: New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.