My favorite Teams (WC, April 1st update)

Israel
The dream is over. We needed a win with a tie we could have kept on dreaming, but the loss in Crate ended it all. Not many of knew, that until this loss Israel had the longest active unbeaten streak in WC (qualifications and finals). Our last loss was on March 28th 2001 (19 games and more than 8 years) to Austria in Vienna (also 2:1 on a PK). We had some good results away from home (0:0 at France, 2:2 at Ireland, 1:1 at Switzerland), even an occasional loss like the one in Vienna or Crate should not have stopped us from progressing. The problem is our inability to beat our competitors at home (Spain and Austria for WC 2002; Switzerland, Ireland and France for WC 2006; Switzerland and Greece for WC 2010).

It took the Israelite 40 years to get to the promise land. It looks like Israeli soccer will need more than that. On the good side, as a Cubs fan, this futility streak doesn’t even come close.

Brazil
Round 12th of CSF qualifier started with good news from Puerto Ordaz Venezuela where 8th place Venezuela beat 6th place Colombia 2:0. Chile drawing with 5th place Uruguay and Paraguay doing the same with 7th place Ecuador while not ideal were not bad either. 9th place Bolivia beat Argentina 6:1 is unlikely to have any impact on Brazil. The must win over Peru was crucial, Brazil in now in 2nd place and more importantly, they have a 4 points lead on 5th place and are a full 7 point and 18 goals ahead of 6th place.

With 6 games to go, brazil seems to be on the right track for qualification, but they are not playing like Brazil.

USA
A young sticker showed that he belongs and that is a good promise for the future. So far the US is on track with 2 home wins and an away draw. However Costa Rica with two homes win and a loss at Mexico is not far behind. Mexico doesn’t look good right now with only 3 points, but they only have one tough away game left (@Costa Rica) and have yet to play the weaker teams (El Salvador and T&T). To feel good the US will need to stay on plan and get 4 points in the next two games (@Costa Rica and Honduras in Chicago). Three points will not be the end of the world, but anything else will force the US to battle the 2nd half of the hex.

Netherlands
What a great week, 3:0 over Scotland, 4:0 over FYRM a 5:0:0 record (15 points) and a goal difference of +11. What more can you ask for? The Netherlands can do no worse than 2nd place. All teams in the group have a negative goal differential. The max points to the other teams in the group are Norway 17, Scotland 16, Macedonia 15 (will have to make up 16 goals) and Iceland 13.

The Netherlands will be in the WC the only question is if they will qualify on June 6th (when they play in Iceland) or June 10th (when they host Norway).

Spain
Spain had almost as good a week as the Netherlands with two wins over Turkey they are now 6:0:0. With 4 games to go including home to Belgium and Estonia and away to Armenia, they should be a lock to qualify, if they can get 7 points, the last game in Bosnia will be meaningless. In case you were wondering, Spain has the longest active unbeaten streak in world cup qualifying (not including WC finals), their last loss was March 31st 1993 to Denmark in Copenhagen (16 years and 39 games if I counted correctly).

Spain is in a great position; they should clinch qualification with a game or two to go.

2010 WCQ update (Post April 1st games)

Overall status

• Qualified: 1
• Alive: 97
• Eliminated: 101
• Did not participate/withdrew: 9

• Total: 208

Summary

• Qualified (1): South Africa(*)
• Formality (2): Netherlands(*)(P), Australia(p’)
• One foot in (1): Japan (p’)
• Looking good (3): Paraguay, Spain(*), England(*)
• Open (25): 78 teams including 1 playoff are still in the chase (add 6 above and 13 bellow to make the 97 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• On life support (13): Albania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Montenegro, Peru

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(p') - Can do no worse than an AFC 5^th place playoff spot.

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (1) Netherlands(*)(P)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (2) Spain(*), England(*)
• Alive (48 -> 10) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Germany(*), Russia, Wales, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Belarus, Croatia, Ukraine, Austria, France, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, Italy(*), Iceland, Macedonia, Norway, Scotland,Albania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Montenegro
• Eliminated (2) Malta, San Marino
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Paraguay
• Alive (9 -> 3.5) Argentina(*), Bolivia, Brazil(*), Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Peru
• Eliminated (0)
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (6 -> 3.5) USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (0) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (20 -> 5) Cameroon, Gabon, Morocco, Togo, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Zambia, Benin, Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Malawi
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (1) Australia(p')
• One foot in (1) Japan(p')
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (7 -> 2.5)
• Eliminated (32) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Aab Emirates
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (seven rounds already played, but most teams have played six or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams.
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (twelve rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4^th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (three games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3^rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (one round has been played) to determine five qualified teams.
5. AFC: Final group phase (4^th round) from 6 September 2008 - 17 June 2009 (six rounds already played) will qualify four teams and an additional two teams will qualify for a playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

Who might be in or out next match

1. UEFA:The next full rounds are to take place June 6th and June 10th.
   
• Group 1
• Albania will be eliminated with a loss to Portugal. If they tie Portugal they will still be theoretically alive for a playoff spot (if they can win a three way tie breaker with Hungary and Portugal).
• Group 2 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Moldova will be eliminated with a tie or a loss to Luxemburg or a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Luxemburg will be eliminated with a loss at Moldova combined with a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Group 4
• Liechtenstein will be eliminated with a loss at Finland (unless they can win a playoff tie breaker with Russia or Finland).
• Group 5 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Armenia will be eliminated with a tie or loss to Bosnia
• Estonia will be eliminated with a loss at Turkey combined with a Bosnia win at Armenia. A tie combined with a Bosnia win will virtually eliminate them (they will need to make up at least 22 goals with three games to win a playoff tiebreaker over Bosnia). A loss combined with a Bosnia tie will also virtually eliminate them (they will either have to make up 22+ goals on Bosnia or 14+ goals on Turkey).
• Group 6
• Andorra will be eliminated with a loss at Belarus.
• Group 8
• Georgia will be eliminated with and Ireland tie or win at Bulgaria.
• Montenegro will be eliminated with a loss at Cyprus and Ireland win at Bulgaria (unless they can win a playoff tiebreaker with either Italy or Ireland).
• Group 9
• Netherlands will qualify with a win at Iceland.
2. CSF: Round 12 is to take place Apr 1st. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
3. CONCACAF: Round 4 is to take place on June 6th. The USA @ Costa Rica round 5 game has been moved up from June 10^th to June 3^rd. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 2 is to take place on June 6^th-10^th. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
5. AFC: Round 7 is to take place on June 6th.
• Group A
• Australia will qualify with a tie or win at Qatar.
• Japan will qualify with a win at Uzbekistan
• Qatar & Uzbekistan can do no better than getting into the AFC 5^th place playoff in place of Bahrain.
• Qatar will be virtually eliminated with a loss to Australia (they will be 3 point and 9 or more goals behind with 1 game, @Japan, left)
• Group B
• South Korea will be assured of AFC 5^th place playoff or better with a win at UAE. South Korea will qualify with a win combined with Iran - North Korea tie. If North Korea wins, the two Koreas can still end up in a three way tie with Saudi Arabia and South Korea could still finish third.
• North Korea will be assured of AFC 5^th place playoff or better with a win over Iran
6. New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

My favorite Teams (WC)

The teams I follow regularly during World Cup Qualifiers (and hopefully the World Cup itself) are Israel (since the 60s), Brazil (since 1970), USA (since the middle 80s), Netherlands (since 1974), Spain (post 2002, mainly due to my son Adam). This is where these teams stand in their respective attempts to qualify to the 2010 WC.

Israel
The home tie with Greece puts us in a very difficult position, We started the campaign with a 2:2 home draw against Switzerland so this means that we failed at getting a home victory against either of our two main competitors. We are also behind them when comparing the current state to the desired state (home win away tie, unless playing a team that is expected to lose most of its games e.g. San Marino). The standing for the top 3 teams in group 2 right now are:

• Switzerland -1 (Win @Greece + 2, Tie @Israel +0, Loss to Luxembourg -3)
• Greece -1 (Win @Latvia +2, Tie @Israel +0, Loss to Switzerland -3)
• Israel -4 (Tie @Latvia +0, Tie with Switzerland -2, Tie with Greece -2)

The only games left in which we can gain points are @Greece on Wednesday and @Switzerland on Oct 14th (last group game). Unless we win at least one of these two games, we will need a great deal of help (with two away ties we will still be at -4 while the other two will be at -3.

Looks like we will have to wait some more before we see Israel in the World Cup

Brazil
What should be an automatic qualification is turning into a battle. Three 0:0 games at home vs Argentina (might be understandable), Bolivia and Colombia are a bad sign. Away wins over Chile and Venezuela are not enough to restore confidence. The saving grace is CSF (CONMEBOL) qualifying format, Brazil is in 4th place, two points ahead of 5th place which leads to the playoff and 4 points ahead of 6th place. The home game on Wednesday against Peru is a must win game.

Brazil is not in an ideal position, but most teams will trade with them in a heart beat.

USA
Very nice comeback with two goals in the last 15 min to pull a 2:2 draw in El Salvador. So far, the US is doing what is expected of them while none of the other hex teams can say the same (Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras are -1 due to an away loss). A home win vs. T&T is required to stay on track.

Netherlands
With a 3:0 win over Scotland the Netherlands are the clear leader of group 9. With 4 games to go they have an 8 points lead over Scotland and Iceland, Macedonia and Norway have a game in hand, but they are also 9 and 10 points behind. The Netherlands don't have any gimme games left, but don't have any monster games either (plying at Scotland on 09/09/09 is the hardest game they have left). A home win over Macedonia on Wednesday will not clinch qualification, but it will make qualification a formality.

Anything short of a total collapse will see the Netherlands in the WC.

Spain
Spain opened a six points lead (over Bosnia) after beating Turkey (7 points behind) at home by the score of 1:0. With 5 games to go including home to Belgium and Estonia and away to Armenia, a tie on Wednesday vs. Turkey will be huge, a win and they can start buying plane tickets to South Africa.

Spain is in a great position, they can survive losses @Turkey and @Bosnia and still finish in first place.

2010 WCQ update (Post March 28th games)

Overall status

• Qualified: 1
• Alive: 100
• Eliminated: 98
• Did not participate/withdrew: 9
• Total: 208

Summary

• Qualified (1): South Africa(*)
• Formality (0):
• One foot in (2): Australia, Japan
• Looking good (3): Paraguay, Spain(*), Netherlands
• Open (26): 82 teams including 1 playoff are sill in the chase (add 5 above and 12 bellow to make the 100 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• On life support (13): UAE, Malta, Moldova, San Marino, Armenia, Estonia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Montenegro

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (last two seeds are still up in the air)

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (2) Spain(*), Netherlands
• Alive (51->11) Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan,
  Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, England, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany(*), Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy(*), Kazakhstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Scotland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, Wales
• Eliminated (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Paraguay
• Alive (9-> 3.5) Argentina(*), Bolivia, Brazil(*), Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela
• Eliminated (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (6 -> 3.5) USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (29) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (20 -> 5) Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Zambia
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (2) Australia, Japan
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (8 -> 2.5) Qatar, Bahrain, South Korea, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran
• Eliminated (31) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Laos, Guam, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/11)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, New Caledonia
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (six rounds already played, but most teams have played 5 or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams.
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (eleven rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4^th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3^rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 to determine five qualified teams (one round has been played).
5. AFC: Final group phase (4^th round) from 6 September 2008 - 17 June 2009 (five rounds already played) will qualify four teams and an additional two teams will qualify for a playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed. New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

Who might be in or out next match day

1. UEFA: The next full rounds are to take place Apr 1st.
• Group 1
• Malta will be eliminated with a loss at Hungary and Denmark not losing at home to Albania.
• Group 3
• San Marino will be eliminated with a loss at Poland.
• Group 7
• Armenia will be eliminated with a loss at Estonia, a Bosnia win over Belgium and Turkey win over Spain. Actually they will still be able to win a tie breaker over Bosnia if they can make up 23 goals
2. CSF: Round 12 is to take place Apr 1st. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
3. CONCACAF: Round 3 is to take place on Apr 1st 2009. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 2 is to take place on Apr 1st 2009. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
5. AFC: Round 6 is to take place on Apr 1st 2009.
• Group A
• Australia with a win over Uzbekistan will clinch an AFC 3rd place playoff spot; in addition, if Qatar and Bahrain draw, Australia would qualify.
• Japan is virtually assured of an AFC 3rd place playoff spot if Qatar and Bahrain draw and Uzbekistan don’t win. Japan will have to lose 3 games; Qatar will have to make up 13 goals vs. Australia and Japan; and Bahrain has to beat Uzbekistan and Australia or Uzbekistan had to tie Australia and beat Bahrain.
• Group B
• UAE will be eliminated with a loss at Saudi Arabia
6. OFC: New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.