2010 WCQ update (Post April 1st games)

Overall status

• Qualified: 1
• Alive: 97
• Eliminated: 101
• Did not participate/withdrew: 9

• Total: 208

Summary

• Qualified (1): South Africa(*)
• Formality (2): Netherlands(*)(P), Australia(p’)
• One foot in (1): Japan (p’)
• Looking good (3): Paraguay, Spain(*), England(*)
• Open (25): 78 teams including 1 playoff are still in the chase (add 6 above and 13 bellow to make the 97 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• On life support (13): Albania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Montenegro, Peru

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(p') - Can do no worse than an AFC 5^th place playoff spot.

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (1) Netherlands(*)(P)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (2) Spain(*), England(*)
• Alive (48 -> 10) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Germany(*), Russia, Wales, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Belarus, Croatia, Ukraine, Austria, France, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, Italy(*), Iceland, Macedonia, Norway, Scotland,Albania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Estonia, Andorra, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Montenegro
• Eliminated (2) Malta, San Marino
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Paraguay
• Alive (9 -> 3.5) Argentina(*), Bolivia, Brazil(*), Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Peru
• Eliminated (0)
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (6 -> 3.5) USA, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (0) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (20 -> 5) Cameroon, Gabon, Morocco, Togo, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Zambia, Benin, Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Malawi
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (1) Australia(p')
• One foot in (1) Japan(p')
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (7 -> 2.5)
• Eliminated (32) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Aab Emirates
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (seven rounds already played, but most teams have played six or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams.
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (twelve rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4^th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (three games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3^rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (one round has been played) to determine five qualified teams.
5. AFC: Final group phase (4^th round) from 6 September 2008 - 17 June 2009 (six rounds already played) will qualify four teams and an additional two teams will qualify for a playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

Who might be in or out next match

1. UEFA:The next full rounds are to take place June 6th and June 10th.
   
• Group 1
• Albania will be eliminated with a loss to Portugal. If they tie Portugal they will still be theoretically alive for a playoff spot (if they can win a three way tie breaker with Hungary and Portugal).
• Group 2 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Moldova will be eliminated with a tie or a loss to Luxemburg or a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Luxemburg will be eliminated with a loss at Moldova combined with a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Group 4
• Liechtenstein will be eliminated with a loss at Finland (unless they can win a playoff tie breaker with Russia or Finland).
• Group 5 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Armenia will be eliminated with a tie or loss to Bosnia
• Estonia will be eliminated with a loss at Turkey combined with a Bosnia win at Armenia. A tie combined with a Bosnia win will virtually eliminate them (they will need to make up at least 22 goals with three games to win a playoff tiebreaker over Bosnia). A loss combined with a Bosnia tie will also virtually eliminate them (they will either have to make up 22+ goals on Bosnia or 14+ goals on Turkey).
• Group 6
• Andorra will be eliminated with a loss at Belarus.
• Group 8
• Georgia will be eliminated with and Ireland tie or win at Bulgaria.
• Montenegro will be eliminated with a loss at Cyprus and Ireland win at Bulgaria (unless they can win a playoff tiebreaker with either Italy or Ireland).
• Group 9
• Netherlands will qualify with a win at Iceland.
2. CSF: Round 12 is to take place Apr 1st. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
3. CONCACAF: Round 4 is to take place on June 6th. The USA @ Costa Rica round 5 game has been moved up from June 10^th to June 3^rd. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 2 is to take place on June 6^th-10^th. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
5. AFC: Round 7 is to take place on June 6th.
• Group A
• Australia will qualify with a tie or win at Qatar.
• Japan will qualify with a win at Uzbekistan
• Qatar & Uzbekistan can do no better than getting into the AFC 5^th place playoff in place of Bahrain.
• Qatar will be virtually eliminated with a loss to Australia (they will be 3 point and 9 or more goals behind with 1 game, @Japan, left)
• Group B
• South Korea will be assured of AFC 5^th place playoff or better with a win at UAE. South Korea will qualify with a win combined with Iran - North Korea tie. If North Korea wins, the two Koreas can still end up in a three way tie with Saudi Arabia and South Korea could still finish third.
• North Korea will be assured of AFC 5^th place playoff or better with a win over Iran
6. New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.