2010 WCQ Update (post June 21st games)

Overall Status

• Qualified (6): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands, North Korea
• Formality (1): England(*)
• One foot in (1): Brazil(*)
• Looking good (5): Spain(*), Costa Rica, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana
  
• Open (19): 60 teams including 1 playoff and 2 AFC Playoff teams are still in the chase (add 7 above and 15 bellow to make the 82 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• AFC Playoff (2/2): Bahrain, Saudi Arabia
  
• On life support (15): Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Wales, Kenya, Guinea, Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan, Bolivia

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(P) - Assured of a playoff spot
(p') - Can do no worse than an AFC 5^th place playoff spot.

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (1) Netherlands
• Formality (1) England(*)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Spain(*)
• Alive (42 -> 10) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Germany(*), Russia, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Belarus, Croatia, Ukraine, Austria, France(*), Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Ireland, Italy(*), Macedonia, Norway, Scotland, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Wales
• Second Place Table (by points lost)
1. Russia(4)                           -3      +8     (+7 GD if Azerbaijan finishes 6^th)
2. Hungary(1)                       -5      +2
3. Switzerland(2)                  -5      +1     (-2 points if Luxembourg finishes 6^th)
4. France(7)                           -5      +1
5. Bosnia-Herzegovina(5)  -6      +8
6. Ukraine(6)                         -7      +3
7. Ireland(8)                          -8      +1     (-6 points if Montenegro finishes 6^th)
8. Northern Ireland(3)         -8      -1
9. Scotland(9)                       -8      -2
• Eliminated (8) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Iceland
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (1) Brazil(*)
• Looking good (1) Chile
• Alive (7 -> 2.5) Paraguay, Argentina(*),Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia,
• Eliminated (1) Peru
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Costa Rica
• Alive (5 -> 2.5) USA, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (29) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (2) Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana
  
• Alive (18 -> 3) Cameroon, Gabon, Morocco, Togo, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Zambia, Benin, Mali, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Guinea, Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (4) Japan, Australia, South Korea, North Korea
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (2 -> 0.5) Bahrain(p'), Saudi Arabia(p')
• Eliminated (35) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Iran
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (nine rounds already played, but most teams have played eight or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams. So far Netherlands have already qualified for the world cup.
   
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (fourteen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (five games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (three rounds have been played, except for Rwanda @ Egypt) to determine five qualified teams.
5. AFC: Final group phase (4th round) has been completed. Japan, Australia, South Korea and North Korea have qualified for world cup. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia qualified for the playoff AFC 5^th place playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team (Bahrain or Saudi Arabia).

Who might be in or out next match

1. UEFA: The next full round is to take place on Sep 5^th (5 games will take place on Aug 12^th).
• Group 2 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Moldova will be eliminated with a tie or a loss to Luxemburg or a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Luxemburg will be eliminated with a loss at Moldova combined with a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Group 4 (Aug 12^th game)
• Azerbaijan will be eliminated unless the beat Germany at home.
• Group 5 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Armenia will be eliminated with a tie or loss to Bosnia
• Estonia will be eliminated with a loss at Turkey combined with a Bosnia win at Armenia. A tie combined with a Bosnia win will virtually eliminate them (they will need to make up at least 22 goals with three games to win a playoff tiebreaker over Bosnia). A loss combined with a Bosnia tie will also virtually eliminate them (they will either have to make up 22+ goals on Bosnia or 14+ goals on Turkey).
• Group 8 (Games are Sep 5^th)
• Montenegro will be eliminated with a loss at Bulgaria and Ireland not losing at Cyprus. A tie at Bulgaria plus Ireland win at Cyprus plus Italy not losing at Georgia will also eliminate Montenegro. If both Ireland and Italy win, Montenegro will be able to do no better than winning a tie-breaker with Ireland for second.
• Cyprus will be eliminated with a home loss to Ireland combined with Italy not losing in Georgia.
• Group 9 (Aug 19^th game)
• Norway will be eliminated with a loss to Scotland.
2. CSF: Round 15 is to take place Sep 5^th.
• Brazil will qualify if they beat and Ecuador loses at Colombia and Uruguay doesn’t win at Peru.
• Bolivia will be eliminated with a loss at Paraguay combined with any of the following: Ecuador win at Colombia; Uruguay win at Peru; Ecuador draw at Colombia and Uruguay draw at Peru. Bolivia will also be eliminated with a draw at Paraguay if Ecuador wins at Colombia.
3. CONCACAF: Round 6 is to take place on Aug 12th. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 4 is to take place Sep 5^th (Round 3 game Rwanda @ Egypt is to be played on July 5^th, Cameron @ Gabon to be played Sep 9^th).
   • Group A
     
   • Cameron will be eliminated with a loss and a tie (or two loses) to Gabon.
   • Group B
     
   • Mozambique will be eliminated with a home loss to Kenya or with a tie combined with a Tunisia winning in Nigeria. A tie combined with Tunisia not winning will put them 6 points and at least 6 goals behind with two games to go.
   • Kenya will be eliminated with a loss combined with a Tunisia win in Nigeria.
     
   • Group D
     
   • Ghana will qualify with a win over Sudan combined with a Mali tie in Benin. A win combined with a Benin win over Mali will leave Ghana 6 points and 7 goals plus the GD ahead of Mali with two games to go.
     
   •  Sudan will be eliminated unless they win in Ghana.
   • Benin will be eliminated if they do worse than Ghana (tie vs. win or loss vs. a tie or a win).
     
   • Mali will be eliminated if they don't win in Benin and Ghana beat Sudan 
     
   • Group E
     
   • With a win over Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire will be 6 points and 6 goals clear with two games to go.
     
   • Malawi will be eliminated unless they beat Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire lose to Burkina Faso .
   • Guinea will be eliminated if they do worth than  Cote d'Ivoire (tie vs. win or loss vs. a tie or a win).
5. AFC: 5^th place playoff is to take place Sep 5^th and 9th between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the winner to face New Zealand .
6. OFC: New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team (Bahrain or Saudi Arabia).