US World Cup streaks

Central and Eastern European

The US plays Slovenia tomorrow (later today in South Africa).

The US record against Central and Eastern European teams in the WC (all last 20 years):

1990:    Czechoslovakia – US 5:1

1990:    Austria – US 2:1

1994:    Romania – US 1:0

1998:    Germany – US 2:0

1998:    Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002:    Poland – US 3:1

2002:    Germany – US 1:0

2006:    Czech Republic – US 2:0

That is a 0:0:8 record.

Third game in World Cups

At least that US can recover in the third game of the group stage against Algeria.

Well, in third games:

1930:    Argentina – US 6:1 (Semi-Finals)

1950:    Chile – US 5:2

1990:    Austria – US 2:1

1994:    Romania – US 1:0

1998:    Yugoslavia – US 1:0

2002:    Poland – US 3:1

2006:    Ghana – US 2:1

That is a 0:0:7 record .

Selected teams

So how did the US do against a fairly impressive list of 4 WC holders, 4 other teams that made the Semi-Finals and 3 teams that are not "also run"? (The teams are Brazil (5WC), Italy (4WC), Argentina (2WC), England (1WC), Portugal (SF), Spain (SF), Belgium (SF), Chile (SF), Mexico (QF), Paraguay and Colombia)

The overall record is 6:2:6, excluding the WC winners the record is 5:0:2. If we also exclude "3^rd game", the record is a very impressive 5:0:1 (a 3:1 loss to Spain in 1950).

Can the US break these two nasty streaks?

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups A-B)

What could happen after the next game

Group A

June 22^nd, early games:

Uruguay – Mexico

France – South Africa

Uruguay will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Mexico (first)
  
• A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 5 (if France wins) or less than 6 (if South Africa wins)  
  
  • If France wins and combined GD = 5: France scores at most 2 goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)                               
    
  • If South Africa wins and combined GD = 6: South Africa scores at most 3 goals more than Uruguay.
    

Mexico will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Uruguay (first if they win)
  
• A loss, provided the combined GD in both games is less than 4 (if France wins) or less than 5 (if South Africa wins)  
  
  • If France wins and combined GD = 4: France scores at most 3 goals more than Mexico.
    
  • If South Africa wins combined GD = 5: South Africa scores at most 1 goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)
    

France will advance with:

• A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
  
  • If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 4; or GD=4 and France scores 4+ goals more than Mexico
    
  • If Uruguay loses: combined GD of both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and France scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay (if France scores 3 goals more than Uruguay –> draw lots)  
    

South Africa will advance with:

• A win plus Mexico – Uruguay not ending in a tie plus the following GD requirements:
  
  • If Mexico loses: combined GD in both games is more than 5; or GD=5 and South Africa scores 3+ goals more than Mexico (if South Africa scores 2 goals more than Mexico –> draw lots)
    
  • If Uruguay loses: combined GD in both games is more than 6; or GD=6 and South Africa scores 4+ goals more than Uruguay  
    

Group B

June 22^nd, late games:

Argentina – Greece

South Korea – Nigeria

Argentina will Advance with:

• A two goal loss or better
  
• Any loss, provided South Korea doesn't win; or the combined GD in both games is less than 5
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina
    

Argentina will finish first with:

• A tie or a win over Greece.
  
• A two goals or less loss to Greece and South Korea not beating Nigeria.
  
• A one or two goals loss and South Korea beating Nigeria and the combined GD in both games is less than 5.
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores at most 2 goals more than Argentina.
    

South Korea will advance with:

• A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than Greece's vs. Argentina
  
  • If margin of victory is the same: Greece scored at most 1 more goal than South Korea
    
•  A tie, provided a Greece loses; or Greece tie while scoring at most 1 goal more than South Korea
  

South Korea will finish first with:

• A win and a Greece win and combined GD in both game is greater than 5 and Greece win is by no more than South Korea's win
  
  • If combined GD = 5: South Korea scores 3+ goals more than Argentina.
    

Greece will advance with

• A 3+ goal win over Argentina (first if South Korea margin of victory is worse than Greece's)
  
• A win, provided the margin of victory is greater than South Korea's vs. Nigeria
  
  • If margin of victory is the same Greece need to score at least 2 more goals than South Korea
    
• A tie, provided South Korea loses; or a South Korea tie while scoring 2 or less goals than Greece.       
  

Nigeria will advance with

• A win and a Greece loss to Argentina
  

Round 1 Summary

Confederation Status

(pre South Africa – Uruguay game)

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5			5	3	2	0	14	8	6	2	80%	73%
AFC	4			4	2	0	2	6	8	2	6	50%	50%
UEFA	13			9	2	5	2	11	2	7	-5	50%	41%
OFC	1			1	0	1	0	1	4	6	-2	50%	33%
CAF	6			6	1	2	3	5	2	3	-1	33%	28%
CONF	3			3	0	2	1	2	1	1	0	33%	22%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

AFC has got to be the surprise confederation so far. In the last three WCs, Non-Host AFC teams had only 2 wins in 30 games. In the first round they won 2 of the first 3 game and North Korea almost pulled a tie against Brazil.

Observations

Mexico needs to beat France and even that might not be enough.

South Korea has done them self proud, but the battle is just starting. They might be able to recover from a 1 goal loss to Argentina, but anything else will force them to look for help.

Slovenia is in a must win game, a win and they are through, a loss and they need to beat England in the last game. In case of a draw they might still need to beat England in the last game (assuming England and USA beat Algeria as well).

Ghana – Australia will be a very telling match, if Ghana wins they are basically in the next round, if Australia wins, race from 2^nd in the group is once more wide open.

Cameron – Denmark was expected to be the game which will determine who will advance. It is now turned into an elimination game.

Both Italy and Paraguay should be very happy at this point. Italy will need to find some scoring if they want to avoid the Netherlands in the round of 16.

Brazil needs to beat Ivory Coast if they want to sleep easy. A tie or a loss and the game against Portugal becomes a must win game (a one goal victory over North Korea is just not enough).

Biggest loser of round 1? Chili. After beating Honduras they figured that a tie against Switzerland will be enough to see them advance. Now they need to beat Switzerland by multiple goals in order to have a chance (Spain will beat Honduras by multiple goals and the game against Chile will be a do or die game for both teams).

 

 

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups E-H)

What could happen after the next game

Group E

• Netherlands will advance with a win over Japan combined with combined with Cameron not beating Denmark.
  
• Japan will advance with a win over Netherlands combined with combined with Denmark not beating Cameron.
  
• Cameron will be eliminated with a loss combined with Netherlands not losing to Japan.
  
• Denmark will be eliminated with a loss combined with Japan not losing to Netherlands.
  

Group F

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group G

• Brazil will advance with a win over Ivory Coast. They can win the group if the Portugal – North Korea game end in a draw.
  
• Ivory Coast and Portugal cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
  
• North Korea will be eliminated with a loss to Portugal.
  

Group H

• Switzerland will advance with a win over Chile combined with combined with Honduras not beating Spain.
  
• Chile will advance with a win over Switzerland combined with combined with Spain not beating Honduras.
  
• Spain will be eliminated with a loss combined with Chile not losing to Switzerland.
  
• Honduras will be eliminated with a loss combined with Switzerland not losing to Chile.
  

2010 WC Update (post Round 1, groups A-D)

What could happen after the next game

Group A

Regardless of round 2 results, none of the teams can qualify for the round of 16 and none can be mathematically eliminated.

Group B

• South Korea will advance with a win over Argentina combined with combined with Nigeria not beating Greece.
  
• Argentina will advance with a win over South Korea combined with combined with Greece not beating Nigeria.
  
• Nigeria will be eliminated with a loss combined with Argentina not losing to South Korea. (Corrected)
  
• Greece will be eliminated with a loss combined with South Korea not losing to Argentina. (Corrected)
  

Group C

• Slovenia will advance with a win over USA. They can win the group if the England – Algeria game end in a draw.
  
• England and USA cannot advance or be eliminated regardless of the results of round 2 games
  
• Algeria will be eliminated with a loss to England.
  

Group D

• Germany will advance with a win over Serbia combined with combined with Australia not beating Ghana.
  
• Ghana will advance with a win over Australia combined with combined with Serbia not beating Germany.
  
• Serbia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Ghana not losing to Australia.
  

Australia will be eliminated with a loss combined with Germany not losing to Serbia.