Mid Quarter Final update

First two quarter final games were not high quality and I'm not sure that the better team won. It just shows that in the World Cup experience and tradition carry extra weight.

Germany is on a current streak of 16 consecutive top 8 finishes. The next based all time is Brazil with 6 (also current). Next all time is Switzerland (yes, the Swiss finished in the top 8 in 1934, 1938, 1950 and 1954). The next longest current streak is Argentina with 3. The only other team with a current such steak is the Netherlands which have done it in 2010 and 2014.

Even more remarkable in my view is the fact that this is the 4th consecutive semi-final for Germany (2nd, 3rd, 3rd, ???). Other than Brazil which made it to the Finals three times in a row (1994-2202) not other team has made it to the Semis more than twice in a row. This matchup also assures us that for the 19th time either Brazil of Germany will finish in the top 3. Brazil 9 time and Germany a record 11 (1970 & 2002 Brazil won and Germany finished 3rd & 2nd respectively). Twice more, both finished in the top 4, 1958 when Brazil won and Germany lost to France and 1974 when Germany won and Brazil lost to Poland.

So this is the 5th time in which both will finish in the top 4 and the other four times Brazil won the WC three time, Germany once and the rest of the world none.

So far only two countries played over 100 World Cup games - Germany with 104 and Brazil with 102. They have faced each other once!!! In the 2002 final. This Tuesday July 8th will be the second time. To put this in perspective, the other extreme is Sweden with a total of 46 games and 7 of them (over 15%) are against Brazil (0:2:5). Even Chile with only 33 games has faced Brazil 4 times in the knock-out rounds and have been eliminated all four times (0:1:3). Even Turkey with a grand total of 10 WC games has faced both Brazil & Germany twice.

With Neymar's Injury I think that the celebrations in Rio tonight were premature. The Brazil - Colombia game was one of the worst reffing jobs I have seen for many many years and there was not a single so called "big" mistake. Just an extremely poor job of player management, foul identification and (no) card selection. A major injury was just waiting to happen. 

Pre Quarter Finals update

Four years ago at this time, I picked Chile as my dark horse for this World Cup. Considering the draw they got, I think that they did very well - eliminating the World Cup and double European champions Spain, taking the favorites, Brazil to PKs and almost wining at the end of Extra Time. So I'm going to pick a dark horse for 2018 and this time, there is really only one choice that is has to be Belgium.

My two favorites before the draw were #1 Brazil and #2 Germany. So far Brazil have been very pedestrian and based on level of play so far should be considered an underdog to Colombia tomorrow, especially due to Neymar's injury. Germany other than the demolishing of Portugal in the first match have looked very vulnerable against 2nd tier opponents (Ghana, USA and Algeria). Yes I know that two of them made it to the last 16, but based on level of play (other than the Goalies) none of these team is a true world top 16. This means that this might be the first time since 1930 that neither of Germany not Brazil will finish in the top 3 (each had also finished 4th once, when the other won in 1958 and 1974).

At this point there are 2 team:

1. Won all 4 games without Extra Time - Columbia & Netherlands
2. Won 3 group game and a round of 16 AET - Argentina & Belgium
3. Won 3 games & tied 1 - France & Germany (1, AET)
4. Won 2 games & tied 2, advanced on PK - Brazil & Costa Rica

The first two will face the last two, but the others will face team with basically the same record.

UEFA record at the later rounds is outstanding. Since the group stage and quarterfinal rounds have been in place (1954). Only one, in 2010, did UEFA had less the half the quarter finalists - 3 and all three made it to the Semis and finished 1,2,3. With the exception of 1930, UEFA always had at least 2 team in the top 4 and since 1954 (15 WCs) they have average 2.93 teams in the Semis. This time we are assured of having 1 CSF team, 1 UEFA team and have an outside chance of the first CONCACAF team in the Semis since 1930 (no, it wasn't Mexico). However it is likely to be at least 2 UEFA teams once again.

I would put Brazil - Colombia as tossup if Neymar is playing. France as a mild favorite over Germany, Argentina as a very slight favorite over Belgium and Netherlands as a huge favorite over Costa Rica. 

At this point my dream final (as a partisan fan) is Brazil over Netherlands. However as stated above, the way Brazil is playing they are not likely to make it. History is also against this final, or even Brazil winning:

1. Every team that beat Netherlands in the final lost in the group stage.
1. 1974: (West) Germany to East Germany
2. 1978: Argentina to Italy
3. 2010: Spain to Switzerland

Only one other World Cup winner lost a game during the World Cup ((West) Germany in 1954 to Hungary which ended up losing the final)

2. No team that held the Confederation Cup at the time of the World Cup was able to win the World Cup
1. 2013 - Brazil (WC won by ???)
2. 2009 - Brazil (WC won by Spain), Brazil out in the 1/4
3. 2005 - Brazil (WC won by Italy), Brazil out in the 1/4
4. 2001 - France (WC won by Brazil), France out GS
5. 1997 - Brazil (WC won by France), Brazil lost the final
6. 1992 - Argentina (WC won by Brazil), Argentina out in R16
7. 1995, 1999 & 2003 winners - Denmark, Mexico & France also failed to win the subsequent WC.

June 30th World Cup Update

UEFA teams continue their undefined run which started on June 24th with Greece late win over Côte d'Ivoire. Since that win UEFA is 9:3:0 before that win they were 12:5:14 counting intra-UEFA games and otherwise 7:5:9. Moreover, none of the UEFA teams lost in the round of 16 (3:1:0, Greece was eliminated, but officially it was a tie).

During the knockout stage run, until the 79th minute all four UEFA teams failed to score a single goal. That is over 5.25 without scoring a goal. The rest of the way UEFA teams scored 7 goals and given up a meaningless goal at the 120'+1' min. During the 15 min post the 79' (1 hour across 4 games) UEFA teams are 6:0 and turn two ties into wins, a loss into a tie and most amazingly a loss into a win.

During the first 6 round of 16 games the group winner has won all 6 games. Never before have we gone that deep into the round of 16 without a 2nd place team advancing to the quarters. In 2010 Ghana beat the USA, in 2006, Ukraine advanced over Switzerland and France beat Spain (Ukraine & Spain as well as France & Switzerland were in the same group). In 2002 half the 2nd place teams advanced - USA beat Mexico, England beat Denmark, Senegal beat Sweden and Turkey beat Japan. In 1998 the tally was lower, but still Denmark beat Nigeria, and Croatia beat Romania. 

Even in 1994 with only 6 group winners, we had Bulgaria advancing over Mexico and Italy over Nigeria. In 1990 the only group winner to lose was Brazil which lost to Argentina which finished third in its group. 1986 saw Spain beating Denmark, Belgium beating the USSR, and West Germany beating Morocco. Even 1982 with a 2nd group stage of 12 teams had a 2nd place Italy advancing ahead of Brazil and France ahead of Northern Ireland.  In the other two groups we had West Germany advancing over England by beating Spain and Both Poland and 2nd place USSR finished ahead of Belgium. 

Even if we go father. In 1978 there was a semi-final group out of which two 2nd place teams (Argentina and Netherland) made it to the final and one more (Brazil) to the 3rd place game which they won. If not for Austria beating Germany on a 87' goal on the last match it would have been a clean sweep for the 2nd place teams. In 1974 using the same format 2nd place Germany made it to the final (which they won) and 2nd place Brazil was again in the third place game which they lost. In 1970 when knockout started at the quarter finals Uruguay beat USSR. It is only in 1996 that we have all group winner advance, but there were only 4 groups (16 teams) in the finals.

Is 2014 going to be the first time that all group winners advance since the expansion from 16 teams?