My favorite Teams (WC, Post June 10th games)

Israel
No games have been played in this group since April 1st

Brazil
Two great wins 4:0 over Uruguay and 2:1 at Paraguay have propelled Brazil to the top of the CSF table with 27 points, +19 goal differential, having scored more than any other team (25 goals) and given up much less (6 goals against) than any other team (Colombia with 11 and Paraguay with 13 are next). More importantly Brazil now have a 7 points lead on 5th place Ecuador and 9 points on 6th place Uruguay with only four games to go. Brazil seems to be like a good bet to qualify - all it take is one win (next game at Argentina on Sep 5th followed by Chile at home on Sep 9th) combined with Ecuador dropping 3 points and Uruguay dropping 1 point. In reality Ecuador dropping 2 points might be enough since they are 21 goals behind Brazil. 

USA
A horrible game in round 5, a 3:1 loss at Costa Rica, which was played before round 4 was followed by a bad start at home vs. Honduras (down 1:0 after less than 5 min). The US did manage to turn the game around and ended up gaining the needed 3 points. The game in Mexico, where the US is 0:1:22, will be the key to the second half of the qualification. A US loss will put Mexico just 1 point behind the US and depending on the Costa Rica @ Honduras and El Salvador at T&T results might put the US even with Honduras, a point a head of Mexico and only 2 head of El Salvador.

On the other hand, a tie in Azteca, especially of combined with a home win over El Salvador on Sep 5th will put the US in a good position. They will have 14 points while Mexico will be on 10 on less and El Salvador will have no more than 8 points.    

Netherlands
Qualified and did it in style. A 2:1 away win in Iceland clinched the qualification and was followed by a 2:0 home win over Norway. With 7 win in 7 games, the Netherlands have only one game left at Scotland (on 09/09/09, Group 9). 

Spain
No games have been played in this group since April 1st

Spain is in a great position; they should clinch qualification with a game or two to go.

2010 WCQ Update (post June 10th games)

Overall Status

• Qualified (5): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands
• Formality (1): England(*)
• One foot in (1): Brazil(*)
• Looking good (3): Spain(*), Costa Rica, Chile
• Open (22): 67 teams including 1 playoff are still in the chase (add 5 above and 13 bellow to make the 85 teams that are still alive).
• Playoff (1/12): New Zealand
• On life support (13): Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Wales, Kenya, Guinea, Malawi, Bolivia

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(P) - Assured of a playoff spot
(p') - Can do no worse than an AFC 5th place playoff spot.

By Confederation

1. UEFA (13/53)
• Qualified (1) Netherlands
• Formality (1) England(*)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Spain(*)
• Alive (42 -> 10) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Germany(*), Russia, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Belarus, Croatia, Ukraine, Austria, France(*), Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Ireland, Italy(*), Macedonia, Norway, Scotland, Luxembourg, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Wales
• Second Place Table (by points lost)
1. Russia(4)                           -3      +8     (+7 GD if Azerbaijan finishes 6^th)
2. Hungary(1)                       -5      +2
3. Switzerland(2)                  -5      +1     (-2 points if Luxembourg finishes 6^th)
4. France(7)                           -5      +1
5. Bosnia-Herzegovina(5)  -6      +8
6. Ukraine(6)                         -7      +3
7. Ireland(8)                          -8      +1     (-6 points if Montenegro finishes 6^th)
8. Northern Ireland(3)         -8      -1
9. Scotland(9)                       -8      -2
• Eliminated (8) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Iceland
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
2. CSF (4.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (1) Brazil(*)
• Looking good (1) Chile
• Alive (7 -> 2.5) Paraguay, Argentina(*),Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia,
• Eliminated (1) Peru
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (1) Costa Rica
• Alive (5 -> 2.5) USA, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Honduras
• Eliminated (29) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Did not participate/withdrew (0)
4. CAF (6/53)
• Qualified (1) South Africa(*)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (20 -> 5) Cameroon, Gabon, Morocco, Togo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Rwanda, Zambia, Benin, Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Guinea, Malawi
• Eliminated (29) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia
• Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
5. AFC (4.5/46)
• Qualified (3) Japan, Australia, South Korea
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (5 -> 1.5) Bahrain, North Korea, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran
• Eliminated (33) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Qatar
• Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
6. OFC (0.5/10)
• Qualified (0)
• Formality (0)
• One foot in (0)
• Looking good (0)
• Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
• Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
• Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (nine rounds already played, but most teams have played eight or less games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams.
2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (fourteen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009.
3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (five games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff.
4. CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (two round has been played) to determine five qualified teams.
5. AFC: Final group phase (4th round) from 6 September 2008 - 17 June 2009 (nine rounds already played) will qualify four teams and an additional two teams will qualify for a playoff. The winner of this playoff will play with New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.

Who might be in or out next match

1. UEFA: The next full round is to take place on Sep 5^th (5 games will take place on Aug 12^th).
• Group 2 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Moldova will be eliminated with a tie or a loss to Luxemburg or a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Luxemburg will be eliminated with a loss at Moldova combined with a Switzerland - Greece draw.
• Group 4 (Aug 12^th game)
• Azerbaijan will be eliminated unless the beat Germany at home.
• Group 5 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Armenia will be eliminated with a tie or loss to Bosnia
• Estonia will be eliminated with a loss at Turkey combined with a Bosnia win at Armenia. A tie combined with a Bosnia win will virtually eliminate them (they will need to make up at least 22 goals with three games to win a playoff tiebreaker over Bosnia). A loss combined with a Bosnia tie will also virtually eliminate them (they will either have to make up 22+ goals on Bosnia or 14+ goals on Turkey).
• Group 8 (Games are Sep 5th)
• Montenegro will be eliminated with a loss at Bulgaria and Ireland not losing at Cyprus. A tie at Bulgaria plus Ireland win at Cyprus plus Italy not losing at Georgia will also eliminate Montenegro. If both Ireland and Italy win, Montenegro will be able to do no better than winning a tie-breaker with Ireland for second.
• Cyprus will be eliminated with a home loss to Ireland combined with Italy not losing in Georgia.
• Group 9 (Aug 19^th game)
• Norway will be eliminated with a loss to Scotland.
2. CSF: Round 15 is to take place Sep 5th.
• Brazil will qualify if they beat and Ecuador loses at Colombia and Uruguay doesn’t win at Peru.
• Bolivia will be eliminated with a loss at Paraguay combined with any of the following: Ecuador win at Colombia; Uruguay win at Peru; Ecuador draw at Colombia and Uruguay draw at Peru. Bolivia will also be eliminated with a draw at Paraguay if Ecuador wins at Colombia.
3. CONCACAF: Round 6 is to take place on Aug 12th. At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
4. CAF: Round 3 is to take place June 20th-21st (Rwanda @ Egypt to be played on July 5th). At this point it is too early to have any teams qualified or eliminated.
5. AFC: Round 10 is to take place on June 17th.
• Group A
• Bahrain can advance for the AFC’s 5^th place playoff by not losing to Uzbekistan at home. They will be eliminated with a loss.
• Uzbekistan will be eliminated unless they win at Bahrain, they will advance to the AFC 5^th place playoff with a win.
• Group B
• North Korea
1. Qualify with a win over Saudi Arabia or with a draw combined with Iran not winning at South Korea.
2. Advance for the AFC’s 5^th place playoff by drawing with Saudi Arabia combined with Iran win at South Korea or a loss combined with Iran not losing or Iran draw combined with a 1 goal loss and North Korea scoring the more goals.
3. Eliminated with a loss combined with an Iran win.
• Saudi Arabia
1. Qualify with a home win over North Korea.
2. Advance for the AFC’s 5^th place playoff by drawing with North Korea combined with Iran not winning at South Korea or a loss combined with an Iran loss.
3. Eliminated with a loss or a draw combined with an Iran win.
• Iran
1. Qualify with a win at South Korea combined with a North Korea draw in Saudi Arabia.
2. Advance for the AFC’s 5^th place playoff with a win at South Korea or a draw combined with Saudi loss or a Saudi win by 2 or more goals or a Saudi win and Iran scoring the same or more goals than North Korea.
3. Eliminated loss in South Korea or a draw combined with North Korea losing by 1 goal while scoring the more goals than Iran or a North Korea - Saudi draw.
6. OFC: New Zealand qualified for the playoff against AFC fifth place team.