Round 3 Summary

Confederation Status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5	5		15	10	4	1	34	22	6	16	80%	76%
UEFA	13	6		29	10	10	9	40	33	27	6	52%	46%
OFC	1			3	0	3	0	3	2	2	0	50%	33%
CONF	3	2		9	2	4	3	10	7	8	-1	44%	37%
AFC	4	2		12	4	2	6	14	13	26	-13	42%	39%
CAF	6	1		18	3	5	10	14	14	22	-8	31%	26%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

So I give credit for AFC for doing well in the first round and their teams proceed to go 0:1:3 in the second round. I correct my "mistake" by claiming that it was a "flash in the pan" and the 4 AFC teams go 2:1:1. Which AFC teams will show up in the Round of 16. Both South Korea (vs. Uruguay) and Japan (vs. Paraguay) have winnable games.

Observations

UEFA has not done as well as expected with only 6 out of 13 teams advancing. Two "top-tier" (Italy and France) are out as winless last place finishers; of the second tier teams only Slovakia managed to advance, at least all of them got a win.

CSF has advanced 5 out of 5 teams, this might even be better than advancing 3 out of 3 teams (1970, 1978) when the WC was only 16 teams. Will FIFA give them 6 teams in 2014 (a host and extra .5 for the success)? Some credit should be given to Honduras; they have done the World Cup justice by fighting to the end and preventing Switzerland from taking Chile's well-earned spot in the round of 16.

Give credit for New Zealand for being the over achievers of the tournament, they showed grit and left everything they had on the field. However, I believe that in a league forward, they would have finished second to last. They had a total of 15 shots in 3 games, only 3 on target (both are lowest among all teams); they committed 61 fouls (second most, Australia had the most with 62). What they did show is that keeping 10 men behind the ball and having a hot GK can turn a poor team into a team with average results.

I really thought that CAF will get 3 or at least 2 teams into the round of 16. As it turned out only Ghana was the only one through and they were lucky at that. If they can make it to the quarters they'll be able to restore African pride.

 

 

Pre-Knockout Stage

Round of 16

Just like World War II, the French are out before the fighting starts, the English are fighting the German and the US joins late with a bang.

The group results left FIFA with a poor bracket. Consider the four "pods" (to borrow an NCAA term).

Pod A	Pod B	Pod C	Pod D
Uruguay-A1	Netherlands-E1	Argentina-B1	Paraguay-F1
South Korea-B2	Slovakia-F2	Mexico-A2	Japan-E2
USA-C1	Brazil-G1	Germany-D1	Spain-H1
Ghana-D2	Chile-H2	England-C2	Portugal-G2

Pod A is made up of teams for which advancing from the group stage is an accomplishment – one of them will be in the semi-finals, none of them can be viewed as a top eight team, yet one of them will finish fourth or better.

Pod B is the one pod which is well balanced, two world cup contenders (shame that one of them will have to miss the semis). An upstart (keep an eye on Chile four years from now) and an unknown which is hot after a big upset win.

Pod C has 3 teams which expected to be in the Semi-finals this time around (not that all three could have made it). And a team which advanced of out the group stage since 1994 – third best such streak after Germany (1954), Brazil (1970). Italy failed to advance this time and while the previous time they failed to advance was 1974, in 1994 they advanced as a 3rd place finisher.

Pod D another pod with three strong teams, but only Spain is a team we truly expected to see in the finals. Paraguay will see a semi-finals appetence as a great success (they never made the quarter-finals in the WC). While Portugal made it to the semis four years ago, this time around the hopes were this high, but realistic expectations were lower even a first round exit was a possibility)

USA – Algeria game

This is what the world cup is all about, an emotional roller coaster. From the joy of an early lead, to the disappointment of it being over ruled due to a bad offside call (they actually showed the replay with the "shadow" in the stadium – a big plus to the Organizing committee). From the despair of a second round slipping away due to countless number of missed opportunities to the euphoria of a winning goal in added time – to the unadulterated joy of a win in the game and the news from Port Elizabeth which meant the US winning the group.

On the down side – US fans still don't know how to be spectators. People come with elaborate headgear which can add 30cm-50cm to their height. Pregame this is great in the stands this is a problem since it blocks the view for many others. To make it worse, some fans get to their feet as soon as the ball crosses mid-field. I have been known to stand up during sporting events, so I have nothing against it in principle. The general rule is that after a few seconds you are back in your seat. You stand up to make a point or when there is real scoring chance, your team crossing mid-field is not a scoring opportunity.

Games in South Africa

To be fair was I anti-vuvuzelas before I got here. After the Spain – Honduras game I felt even stronger about them not belonging in the stadium. After last night, I ready to actually fight against them. I'm sure you have heard about the noise "pollution" – not my argument; Players can't hear each other – Normally I would say deal with it; inability to hear the whistle – now you have my attention; a player gets a YC because of it – ban it! But most of all, the reason I want all vuvuzelas banned is that they take away the ability of fans to support or relay their team. If your pro-vuvuzelas argument is based on tradition, you might want to know that this great form of "celebration" is not even a pre-teen ("He began with 500 trumpets in 2001").

The noise is non-stopping and very load even when a large group of fans tries to cheer, it is impossible to hear it even 5 rows away, forget about hearing it on the field. As far as I'm concerned the best reason to ban the vuvuzelas is the fans – I want to be able to support or boo my team and for the players on the field to hear it. I want to be able to get a section of the crowed to hear a "smart alec" remark made by a fan after a miss or a bad call. With the vuvuzelas in the stands – all these are gone and the big loser is the game.

Tie Breakers

There are questions about the tie breaking procedures used in during the group stage on the 2010 world cup. The official word is from 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Regulations, Article 39 bullet 5, page 41

The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:

a)    greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;

b)    goal difference in all group matches;

c)    greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings will be determined as follows:

d)    greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;

e)    goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;

f)    greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;

g)    drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising (sic) Committee

  

Round 2 Summary

Confederation Status

Confed	Tm	2R	QF	P	W	D	L	Pts	G+	G-	GD	Win%	Pts%
CSF	5			10	8	2	0	26	18	4	14	90%	87%
UEFA	13			20	7	8	5	29	25	16	9	55%	48%
OFC	1			2	0	2	0	2	2	2	0	50%	33%
CONF	3			6	1	3	2	6	6	7	-1	42%	33%
AFC	4			8	2	1	5	7	6	19	-13	31%	29%
CAF	6			12	1	4	7	7	6	15	-9	25%	19%

Intra-confederation games (e.g. Spain-Switzerland, are excluded)

Looks like AFC was a flash in the pan. However, New Zealand managed to "improve" on the surprise draw with Slovakia by holding the current World cup holder to a 0:0: tie.

Observations

A two wins un-scored upon Chile is the odds on favorite to be eliminated. I can't recall a case in which a team with two wins from two games was likely to be eliminated. Chile has to face Spain which must win in order to ensure advancement. In the other game, Switzerland, which also must win to ensure advancement, is facing Honduras which is ye to score a goal. If Spain wins 1:0 and Switzerland wins 2:1 (both reasonable scores), then Chile drops to third place in the group.

On the other hand Nigeria with two losses, only need Argentina to beat Greece (expected result) in order to control their own destiny – any type of a win will see them through and face one of the easier round of 16 opponents.

Clearly CSF with 90% success rate is doing extremely well and people are talking about a Brazil – Argentina final. I don't think that the dream final will happen. Brazil could have to face the "best" Europe has to offer (Spain, Netherlands and England) in order to reach the finals. Argentina could face Mexico, Germany and Portugal/Paraguay.

On the other hand, England could reach the semifinals with wins over Slovenia, Ghana (without their star) and Greece. Paraguay could reach the semifinals with wins over New Zealand, Japan/Denmark and Switzerland. I'm not saying that either will happen, but the fact that both a real possibility after two rounds have been played is saying something.

Last night I went to the Spain – Honduras game in Ellis park. Arguably, this stadium held the most important sporting event (when sporting and non-sporting impact is included) of all time. That event was the 1995 Rugby World Cup, if you haven't seen the movie Invictus – go rent it.

I went to the game with a FlyerTalk friend from Sandton, we drove down to the game early and watched the Chile – Switzerland game at the Troyeville hotel which is a very short walk from Ellis park. Since we drove down early there was no traffic to deal with and the bar at the hotel still had chairs, less than ½ an hour later the place was full. The game itself was enjoyable, but I had to use ear plugs for the first time in almost 30 years to keep down the noise from the vuvuzelas.

The only down side on a great day was when we headed back home, the people we parked with, asked for the rest of the money when we got to the car. A firm "no" and a short discussion ensued, and we got across the point that no more money is coming their way. On the way back we used a back way – avoiding the highway and we got back to Santon without even seeing a traffic jam. The drive from Santon back to Pretoria was very smooth, I'm still getting used to driving on the right hand side, and I was back in the room before midnight.

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups G-H)

What could happen after the next game

Group G

June 25^th, early games:

Brazil – Portugal

Ivory Coast – North Korea

Brazil has advanced

Brazil will finish first with:

• A tie or a win over Portugal.
  

Portugal will advance with:

• A tie or a win over Brazil
  
• A loss and Ivory Coast not winning against North Korea; or Ivory Coast wins and the combined GD in both games is less than 9
  
  • If combined GD = 9: Ivory Coast scores at most 5 goals more than Portugal (if Ivory Coast scores 6 more goals -> Draw lots).
    

Portugal will finish first with:

• A win
  

Ivory Coast will advance with

• A win over North Korea provided Portugal losses and the combined GD in both games is over 9
  
  • If combined GD = 9: Ivory Coast scores 7+ goals more than Portugal (if Ivory Coast scores 6 more goals -> Draw lots).
    

North Korea has been eliminated

Group H

June 25^th, late games:

Chile – Spain

Switzerland – Honduras

Chile will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Spain (first)
  
• A loss, provided Switzerland doesn't win; or
  
• A loss, provided both games end with a 1 goal victories and Switzerland scores at most 1 goals more than Chile
  

Spain will advance with:

• A win over Chile
  
• A tie, provided Switzerland doesn't win.
  
• A 1 goal loss provided Switzerland loses by 1 goal.
  
• A 2 goals loss provided one of the following:
  
  • Switzerland loses by 1 goal while scoring no more goals than Spain.
    
  • Honduras wins by 2 goals while scoring at most 2 goals more than Spain
    
• A 3 goals loss provided Honduras wins by 1 goal while scoring at most 2 goals more than Spain
  

Spain will finish first with:

• A win, provided Switzerland margin of victory (MOV) is not better than Spain's
  
  • If Switzerland MOV is 1 better than Spain's: Switzerland scoring no more goals than Spain.
    

Switzerland will advance with

• A win, provided Spain doesn't win
  
• A tie, provided Spain loses
  
• A one goal loss, provided Spain losses by 3+ goals
  
  • If Spain loses by 2 goals: Switzerland scores more goals than Spain.       
    

Spain will finish first with:

• A win, provided Spain wins and Switzerland MOV is 2+ better than Spain's
  
  • If Switzerland MOV is 1 better than Spain's: Switzerland scores more goals than Spain.
    

Honduras will advance with

• A 2+ goals win over Switzerland provided the combined GD of both games is 5+
  

If combined GD = 4: Honduras scores 3+ goals more goals than Spain

2010 WC Update (post Round 2, groups C-F)

What could happen after the next game

Group C

June 23^rd, early games:

Slovenia – England

USA – Algeria

Slovenia will Advance with:

• A tie or win over England
  
• A loss, provided USA – Algeria ends in a tie; or an Algeria one goal win while scoring at most 3 goals more than Slovenia.  
  

Slovenia will finish first with:

• A win over England.
  
• A tie provided USA doesn't win; or USA wins by 1 goal while scoring less than Slovenia.
  
  • If USA and Slovenia score the same number of goals –> draw lots
    

USA will Advance with:

• A win over Algeria
  
• A tie, provided England loses; or England ties while scoring at most 1 goal more than USA  
  
  • If England ties and scores 2 more goals than USA –> draw lots
    

USA will finish first with:

• A 2+ goals win and Slovenia – England tie.
  
• A 1 goal win and Slovenia – England tie while scoring more goals than Slovenia.
  
  • If USA and Slovenia score the same number of goals –> draw lots
    
• A win and England wins while scoring at most 1 goal more than USA.
  
  • If England scores 2 goals more than USA –> draw lots
    

England will advance with:

• A win over Slovenia:
  
• A tie, provided USA loses; or USA ties while England scores 3+ goals more than USA  
  
  • If USA ties and scores 2 less goals than England –> draw lots
    

England will finish first with:

• A win and USA Not wining.
  
• A win and USA wins while England scores 3+ goals more than USA.
  
  • If England scores 2 goals more than USA –> draw lots
    

Algeria will advance with:

• A win plus England not beating Slovenia
  

Group D

June 23^rd, late games:

Ghana – Germany

Serbia – Australia

Ghana will Advance with:

• A tie or a win over Germany
  
• A 1 goal loss, provided Serbia ties while scoring at most 1 goal more than Ghana
  
• A loss provided Australia wins and the combined GD in both games is less than 5
  
  • If combined GD = 5: Australia scores no more goals than Ghana (if Australia scores 1 goal more than Ghana –> Draw lots)
    

Ghana will finish first with:

• A win over Germany.
  
• A tie and Serbia not beating Australia.
  

Germany will advance with:

• A win over Ghana
  
• A tie provided Serbia – Australia tie; or Australia wins by no more than 6 goals
  
  • If Australia wins by 7 goals: Australia scores at most 3 goals more than Germany.
    

Germany will finish first with:

• A win and a Serbia's margin of victory is at most 2 more than Germany's
  
  • If Serbia's Margin of victory is 3 more than Germany's: Serbia scoring at most 2 goals more than Germany.
    

Serbia will advance with

• A win over Australia
  
• A tie, provided a Germany loss; or a Ghana loss by 2+ goals
  
  • If Ghana losses by 1 goal: Serbia scores 2+ goals more than Ghana.       
    

Australia will advance with

• A win provided Germany losses
  
• A 8+ goals win provided Germany ties
  
• A 7 goals win provided Germany ties while scoring 4+ more goals than Germany
  
• A win provided Ghana losses and the combined GD of both games is 6+
  
  • If combined GD = 5: Australia scores 2+ goals more than Ghana (if Australia scores 1 goal more than Ghana –> Draw lots)
    

Group E

June 24^th, late games:

Netherlands – Cameron

Japan – Denmark

Netherlands has advanced

Netherlands will finish first with:

• A tie or a win over Cameron.
  
• A loss and one of the following provided Japan – Denmark end in a tie; of the combined GD of both games is no more than 2 (Japan win), 3 (Denmark win).
  
  • If Japan wins and combined GD = 3: Japan scores at most 2 goals more than Netherlands.
    
  • If Denmark wins and combined GD = 4: Denmark scores at most 1 goal more than Netherlands.
    

Japan will advance with:

• A tie or a win over Denmark
  

Japan will finish first with:

• A win and a Netherlands loss and combined GD of both games is greater than 3
  
  • If combined GD = 3: Japan scoring 3+ goals more than Netherlands.
    

Denmark will advance with

• A win over Japan
  

Denmark will finish first with:

• A win and a Netherlands loss and combined GD of both games is greater than 4
  
  • If combined GD = 4: Japan scoring 2+ goals more than Netherlands.
    

Cameron has been eliminated

Group F

June 24^th, early games:

Paraguay – New Zealand

Italy – Slovakia

Paraguay will advance with:

• A tie or a win over Italy
  
• A loss provided Italy – Slovakia end in a tie; or Slovakia wins and the combined GD of both games is no more than 3
  
  • If combined GD = 4: Slovakia scores at most 2 goals more than Paraguay.
    

Paraguay will finish first with:

• A win or a tie and Italy wins by 1 goal
  
  • If Italy wins by 2 goals: Italy scores no more goals than Paraguay (if Italy scores 1 goal more than Paraguay –> Draw lots).
    

Italy will Advance with:

• A win over Slovakia
  
• A tie and New Zealand loss; or New Zealand ties while scoring less goals than Italy
  
  • If both New Zealand and Italy score than same number of goals –> Draw lots
    

Italy will finish first with:

• A win over Slovakia and margin of victory is greater than New Zealand's Margin of victory.
  
  • If Margin of victory is the same: scoring more goals than New Zealand (if both score the same number of goal -> Draw lots).
    

New Zealand will advance with:

• A win over Paraguay
  
• A tie and Italy ties while scoring less goals than New Zealand
  
  • If both New Zealand and Italy score than same number of goals –> Draw lots
    

New Zealand will finish first with:

• A win over Paraguay and Italy's not wining.
  
• A win and margin of victory is greater than Italy's Margin of victory.
  
  • If Margin of victory is the same: scoring more goals than New Zealand (if both score the same number of goal -> Draw lots).
    

Slovakia will advance with:

• A win over Italy and New Zealand not wining
  
• A win over Italy and Paraguay loss provided the combined GD of both games is more than 4
  
  • If combined GD = 4: Slovakia scores 3+ goals more than Paraguay.