Sunday, March 29, 2009

My favorite Teams (WC)

The teams I follow regularly during World Cup Qualifiers (and hopefully the World Cup itself) are Israel (since the 60s), Brazil (since 1970), USA (since the middle 80s), Netherlands (since 1974), Spain (post 2002, mainly due to my son Adam). This is where these teams stand in their respective attempts to qualify to the 2010 WC.

Israel
The home tie with Greece puts us in a very difficult position, We started the campaign with a 2:2 home draw against Switzerland so this means that we failed at getting a home victory against either of our two main competitors. We are also behind them when comparing the current state to the desired state (home win away tie, unless playing a team that is expected to lose most of its games e.g. San Marino). The standing for the top 3 teams in group 2 right now are:
  • Switzerland -1 (Win @Greece + 2, Tie @Israel +0, Loss to Luxembourg -3)
  • Greece -1 (Win @Latvia +2, Tie @Israel +0, Loss to Switzerland -3)
  • Israel -4 (Tie @Latvia +0, Tie with Switzerland -2, Tie with Greece -2)
The only games left in which we can gain points are @Greece on Wednesday and @Switzerland on Oct 14th (last group game). Unless we win at least one of these two games, we will need a great deal of help (with two away ties we will still be at -4 while the other two will be at -3.

Looks like we will have to wait some more before we see Israel in the World Cup

Brazil
What should be an automatic qualification is turning into a battle. Three 0:0 games at home vs Argentina (might be understandable), Bolivia and Colombia are a bad sign. Away wins over Chile and Venezuela are not enough to restore confidence. The saving grace is CSF (CONMEBOL) qualifying format, Brazil is in 4th place, two points ahead of 5th place which leads to the playoff and 4 points ahead of 6th place. The home game on Wednesday against Peru is a must win game.

Brazil is not in an ideal position, but most teams will trade with them in a heart beat.

USA
Very nice comeback with two goals in the last 15 min to pull a 2:2 draw in El Salvador. So far, the US is doing what is expected of them while none of the other hex teams can say the same (Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras are -1 due to an away loss). A home win vs. T&T is required to stay on track.

Netherlands
With a 3:0 win over Scotland the Netherlands are the clear leader of group 9. With 4 games to go they have an 8 points lead over Scotland and Iceland, Macedonia and Norway have a game in hand, but they are also 9 and 10 points behind. The Netherlands don't have any gimme games left, but don't have any monster games either (plying at Scotland on 09/09/09 is the hardest game they have left). A home win over Macedonia on Wednesday will not clinch qualification, but it will make qualification a formality.

Anything short of a total collapse will see the Netherlands in the WC.

Spain
Spain opened a six points lead (over Bosnia) after beating Turkey (7 points behind) at home by the score of 1:0. With 5 games to go including home to Belgium and Estonia and away to Armenia, a tie on Wednesday vs. Turkey will be huge, a win and they can start buying plane tickets to South Africa.

Spain is in a great position, they can survive losses @Turkey and @Bosnia and still finish in first place.



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