Thursday, September 10, 2009

2010 WCQ Update (post September 9th games)

Overall Status
  • Qualified (11): South Africa(*), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Netherlands, North Korea, Brazil(*), Ghana, England(*), Spain(*), Paraguay
  • Formality (1): Cote d'Ivoire
  • One foot in (1): Chile
  • Looking good (6): Costa Rica, Honduras, USA(P), Mexico(P), Slovakia(P), Germany(*)(P), Serbia(P), Italy(*)(P)
  • Open (13): 34 teams including 2 playoff teams are still in the chase (add 8 above and 11 bellow to make the 53 teams that are still alive).
    • Playoff (2/12): New Zealand, Bahrain
  • On life support (11): Turkey, Austria, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Norway, El Salvador, Morocco, Kenya, Mozambique, Burkina Faso,

(*) - Projected as a seeded team in the WC (based on Football-Rankings.info)
(P) - Assured of a playoff spot


By Confederation

  1. UEFA (13/53)
    • Qualified (3) Netherlands, England(*), Spain(*)
    • Formality (0)
    • One foot in (0)
    • Looking good (4) Slovakia(P), Germany(*)(P), Serbia(P), Italy(*)(P)
    • Alive (24 -> 6) Denmark, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovenia, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Ukraine, France(*), Ireland, Romania, Norway, Turkey, Austria, Lithuania, Bulgaria   
      • Second Place Table (by points lost)
        1. Russia(4)                           -3      +9     (+10 GD if Liechtenstein finishes 6th)
        2. Bosnia-Herzegovina(5)   -8      +8
        3. Greece(2)                           -8      +3
        4. Ireland(8)                          -8      +2     (-6 points if Montenegro finishes 6th)
        5. Ukraine(6)                         -9      +3    
        6. France(7)                           -9      +1
        7. Sweden(1)                         -9      +1
        8. Slovenia(3)                     -10      +4
        9. Norway(9)                      -14       +2
    • Eliminated (22) Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Georgia, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Montenegro, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Finland, Wales, Belgium, Belarus, Macedonia, Scotland
    • Did not participate/withdrew (0)
  2. CSF (4.5/10)
    • Qualified (2) Brazil(*), Paraguay
    • Formality (0)
    • One foot in (1) Chile
    • Looking good (0)
    • Alive (5 -> 1.5) Argentina(*),Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela
    • Eliminated (2) Peru, Bolivia
    • Did not participate/withdrew (0)
  3. CONCACAF (3.5/35)
    • Qualified (0)
    • Formality (0)
    • One foot in (0)
    • Looking good (2) USA(P), Mexico(P)
    • Alive (3 -> 1.5) Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador,  
    • Eliminated (30) Dominica, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cayman Islands, Aruba, St. Kitts and Nevis, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Anguilla, Nicaragua, Barbados, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Grenada, Guyana, Panama, Neth. Antilles, Canada, Cuba, Haiti, Suriname, Guatemala, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago
    • Did not participate/withdrew (0)
  4. CAF (6/53)
    • Qualified (2) South Africa(*), Ghana
    • Formality (1) Cote d'Ivoire
    • One foot in (0)
    • Looking good (0)
    • Alive (11 -> 3) Cameroon, Gabon, Togo, Nigeria, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Morocco
    • Eliminated (36) Somalia, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Seychelles, Mauritania, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritius, Tanzania, Lesotho, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Burundi, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo DR, Zimbabwe, Angola, Cape Verde Islands, Libya, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Senegal, Chad, Congo, Uganda, Gambia, Rwanda, Benin, Mali, Sudan, Guinea, Malawi, Zambia
    • Did not participate/withdrew (3) Central African Republic, Sao Tome & Principe, Eritrea
  5. AFC (4.5/46)
    • Qualified (4) Japan, Australia, South Korea, North Korea
    • Formality (0)
    • One foot in (0)
    • Looking good (0)
    • Alive (1 -> 0.5) Bahrain(P)
    • Eliminated (36) Bangladesh, Macau, Vietnam, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Yemen, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, China, Oman, Thailand, Jordan, Turkmenistan, Singapore, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia
    • Did not participate/withdrew (5) Bhutan, Brunei, Guam, Laos, Philippines
  6. OFC (0.5/10)
    • Qualified (0)
    • Formality (0)
    • One foot in (0)
    • Looking good (0)
    • Alive (1 -> 0.5) New Zealand(P)
    • Eliminated (9) American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Vanuatu
    • Did not participate/withdrew (1) Papua New Guinea

For actual elimination dates and order see 2010 WC Eliminations timeline.

When and what in the confederations

  1. UEFA: Group phase played from 20 August 2008 - 14 October 2009 (twelve rounds already played, but all  teams have played eight or nine games) to determine nine qualified group winners. Playoffs in November 2009 to determine four additional qualifiers from top eight second placed teams. So far Netherlands, England and Spain have qualified for the world cup.
  2. CSF: Group phase played from 13 October 2007 - 13 October 2009 (sixteen rounds already played) to determine four qualified teams. Fifth placed team will play against the fourth place CONCACAF team in November 2009. So far Brazil and Paraguay have qualified.
  3. CONCACAF: Final group phase (4th round) played from 11 February - 14 October 2009 (seven games already been played) to determine three qualified teams and one additional team, which will play the Fifth place team from CSF in the playoff. Practically, this has turned into a four team race for 3.5 spots.
  4. CAF: Final group phase (3rd round) played 28 March 2009 - 14 November 2009 (four rounds have been played) to determine five qualified teams. So far South Africa (host) and Ghana have qualified
  5. AFC: Final group phase (4th round) has been completed. Japan, Australia, South Korea and North Korea have qualified for world cup. Bahrain has qualified for the playoff against New Zealand with the winner qualifying to the world cup.
  6. OFC: Completed New Zealand qualified for the playoff against Bahrain with the winner qualifying for the world cup.

Who might be in or out next match

  1. UEFA: The next full round is to take place on Oct 10th.
    • Group 1
      • Denmark will qualify with a home win over Sweden.
      • Denmark will be assured of a playoff spot with a Portugal - Hungary draw.
      • Sweden will be assured of a playoff spot with a win combined with a Portugal - Hungary draw.
      • Portugal will be eliminated with a loss or a home draw with Hungary combined with a Sweden win in Denmark.
      • Hungary will be eliminated with a loss or an away draw with Portugal combined with a Sweden win in Denmark.
    • Group 2
      • Switzerland will qualify with a win in Luxembourg combined with a Greece - Latvia draw
      • Switzerland will be assured of a playoff spot with a win or a draw combined with Greece - Latvia not ending in a draw and Israel not beating Moldova at home.
      • Israel will be eliminated with a home loss or a draw combined with a Greece - Latvia not ending in a draw.
    • Group 3
      • Slovakia assured of a playoff spot
      • Slovakia will qualify with a home win or a draw against Slovenia.
      • Czech Republic will be eliminated with a loss or a draw against Poland combined with Slovenia win over Slovakia.
      • Poland will be eliminated with a loss at Czech Republic; or a draw combined with Slovenia win over at Slovakia.
    • Group 4
      • Germany assured of a playoff spot
      • Russia assured of a playoff spot
      • Germany will qualify with a win at Russia.
    • Group 5
      • Spain qualified
      • Bosnia can qualify for  playoff spot with a win at Estonia or a Turkey loss at Belgium; or a draw combined with Turkey not winning.
      • Turkey will be eliminated with an away loss to Belgium or a Bosnia win; or a draw unless Bosnia lose at Estonia (they will still make to make up 10 goals).
    • Group 6
      • England qualified
      • Regardless of the Ukraine - England result both Ukraine and Croatia will remain alive for a playoff spot.
    • Group 7
      • Serbia assured of a playoff spot.
      • Serbia will qualify with a home win over Romania or a France home loss to the Faroe Islands; or a draw combined with France not winning .
      • France can be assured of a playoff  spot with a home win over Faroe Islands
      • France can be assured of no worse than a 2nd place finish (but not a playoff spot) with a draw combined with Austria not wining at home against Lithuania.
      • Romania will be eliminated unless they win at Serbia and France lose.
      • Lithuania will be eliminated unless they win at Austria and France lose.
      • Austria will be eliminated with a home loss to Lithuania, a France win; or a draw combined with France not losing.
    • Group 8
      • Italy assured of a playoff spot
      • Italy will qualify with a draw or win in Ireland.
      • Ireland will qualify for the playoff with a win; or a draw combined with Bulgaria not winning in Cyprus.
      • Ireland will be assured of a 2nd place finish (but not a playoff spot) with a loss combined with an Austria loss.
    • Group 9
      • Netherlands qualified.
      • Norway will be eliminated if Sweden win at Denmark and Ireland not losing to Italy and Bosnia not losing at Estonia.   
  2. CSF: Round 17 is to take place Oct 10th.
      • Brazil qualified.
      • Paraguay qualified.
      • Chile will qualify with a win at Colombia; or a draw combined with Ecuador not beating Uruguay and Argentina not beating Peru.
      • Chile will be assured of a playoff spot with a draw.
      • Colombia will be eliminated with a home loss to Chile combined with Argentina beating Peru and Venezuela beating Paraguay.
      • Venezuela will be eliminated with a home loss to Paraguay combined with Argentina beating Peru and Ecuador beating Uruguay.
      • Uruguay will be eliminated with an away loss to Ecuador combined with Argentina beating Peru.
  3. CONCACAF: Round 9 is to take place on Oct 10th.
      • USA will qualify by doing as well or better than Costa Rica.
      • Mexico will qualify by doing better than Costa Rica  
      • Honduras will quanlify with a home win over USA combined with a Costa Rica home loss to T&T
      • Honduras will be assured of a playoff spot with a win over USA or El Salvador not winning in Mexico.
      • Costa Rica will be assured of a playoff spot with a win over T&T or El Salvador loss; or a draw combined with El Salvador not winning.
      • El Salvador will be eliminated loss at Mexico; a draw combined with Costa Rica not losing at home to T&T; a win combined with Costa Rica and Honduras wins.
  4. CAF: Round 5 is to take place Oct 10th (Round 3 game, Gabon @ Cameron to be played Sep 9th).
    • Group A
      • Cameron will qualify with a home win over Togo combined with Gabon losing at home to Morocco.
      • Morocco will be eliminated unless they win at Gabon or if Cameroon beat Togo at home .
    • Group B
      • Mozambique will be eliminated a loss or a draw in Nigeria or a Tunisia win over Kenya.
      • Kenya will be eliminated with a loss or a draw in Tunisia win in Nigeria.
    • Group C
      • Algeria will qualify with a home win over Rwanda combined with Egypt not winning in Zambia or with a draw combined with an Egypt loss.
      • Egypt will be eliminated if they do worse than Algeria.
    • Group D
      • Ghana qualified.  
    • Group E
      • Cote d'Ivoire will qualify with a draw in Malawi or a Burkina Faso not winning in Guinea.
  5. AFC: Bahrain qualified for the playoff against New Zealand.
  6. OFC: New Zealand qualified for the playoff against Bahrain


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