Confederations update and some not so random thoughts

Half way through the third round

Confed	Tm	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	PNT	W%	PNT%
CSF	6	16	12	1	3	31	15	37	78.1	77.1
CONC	4	10	5	3	2	13	10	18	65.0	60.0
UEFA	13	32	13	5	14	51	49	44	48.4	45.8
CAF	5	12	3	2	7	14	22	11	33.3	30.6
AFC	4	10	0	3	7	8	21	3	15.0	10.0
OFC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• Not surprising CSF teams are doing well at "home". Only Ecuador is not in the Round of 16 and that is due to a late counter by Switzerland when Ecuador refused to settle for a tie in the opening match.
• So far CONCACAF has had a very respectable showing With two teams finishing the group stage undefeated and one more needing only a tie to advance. Only Honduras which had the easiest group on paper is pointless after two games.
• UEFA is one game below 500 and it would have been worse if not for late winners by Greece & Switzerland and a 95th min tying goal by Portugal.
• CAF after only getting one of 6 teams to advance at home 4 years ago was in a position to advance 4 - Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria and Algeria only needed a tie to advance and Ghana is likely to advance with a win. Côte d'Ivoire managed to have the needed tie at the end of 90 minutes but in added time a PK sent them home.
• As always AFC has way too many representatives. So far 3 ties in 10 games. The last time AFC team won a playoff was 1998 was against Australia who is now part of AFC. During that time they managed to lose to teams form CSF, OFC (yes you are reading this right), CONCACAF and UEFA. The only reason they have not lost to a CAF team is that they didn't play them. 

We have had at least three very late goals (post 90 min) that have made a big difference already and if you add Messi's vs. Iran that 4 in 40 games. That is a very high percentage. The US better remember Gary Lineker's quote "Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win". This is double important, in 2010 & 2006 Ghana eliminated the US, in 2002 Germany and Germany was involved in 1998. Are the two of them going to combine this time? I sure hope not.

Brazil path is full with land mines. Start with a very dangerous Chile team (this is the 3 time in the last 5 world cups that they two are meeting in the Round of 16. If they win they will have to face the winner of Columbia and Uruguay (the current CSF champion) and if that is not enough, the winner of France and Germany is waiting in the Semis.

On the other hand Argentina and Netherlands are booking their hotels in Sao Paulo for the other Semi. Argentina will face Switzerland or Ecuador followed by the winner of Belgium vs the US or Ghana. None of these is a top 8 team and probably not even a top 16. The Netherlands will face Mexico (a team that needed another 90+ minute goal by the US against Panama in order to advance to the payoffs), and after that the winner of Costa Rica and Greece. I think that it is safe to say that it is more surprising to see these teams in the R16 then not. I doubt that anyone had all three advance.

Trivia:

1. Which team holds the longest current streak of qualifying to the World Cup and advancing out of the group stage?
• Highlight to see the answer: Mexico (6 times, since 1994). Brazil (since 1970) and Germany (since 1954, all at least 1/4 final) have advanced out of the group stage for longer, but both didn't need to qualify since Mexico's run started (Germany in 2006 and Brazil in 2014)
2. When was the last time that none of England, Italy and Spain advanced out of the group state in a World Cup?
• Highlight to see the answer: 1974. Italy finished 3rd in the group behind Poland and Argentina (on GD) while both England and Spain failed to quality (England 2nd to Poland and Spain lost to Yugoslavia in a payoff after both was tied on points and GD).   

Final note. The officiating has been the worst I remember. Even 2002 was better and that is saying a great deal. Is it possible that the introduction of Goal Line Technology has subconsciously impacted these world class refs and shaken their confidence?